This book has the web links for my printed book “Complete the art of investing”. It will save the readers time by clicking the link below or from this book to access YouTube videos or articles mentioned in the book.

Important notices

Version	Kindle
Initial	05/21

No part of this book can be reproduced in any form without the written approval of the author. My email address is pow_tony@yahoo.com and my blog is https://tonyp4idea.blogspot.com.

Book store managers can order the printed books from Creatspace.com.

https://tonyp4idea.blogspot.com/2020/12/book-managers.html

Disclaimer

Do not gamble with money that you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and is not necessarily indicative of future results. All information is believed to be accurate, but there it is not a guarantee. All the strategies including charts to detect market plunges described have no guarantee that they will make money and they may lose money. Do not trade without doing due diligence and be warned that most data may be obsolete. All my articles and the associated data are for informational and illustration purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor, a tax professional or any other field. Seek one before you make any investment decisions. The above mentioned also applies for all other advice such as on accounting, taxes, health and any topic mentioned in this book. Tax laws change all the time, so talk to your tax advisors before taking any action. Most of the time, I use annualized for a better comparison; 5% in a month is more than 4% in a year for example. For simplicity, most of my returns do not include commissions, exchange fees, order spread and dividends. It is the same for all the links contained in this book. Some articles may offend some one or some organization unintentionally. If I did, I’m sorry about that. I am politically and religiously neutral. I have provided my best efforts to ensure the accuracy of my articles. Data also from different sources was believed to be accurate. However, there is no guarantee that they are accurate and suitable for the current market conditions and /or your individual situations. The values of some parameters such as RSI(14) are arbitrarily set by me. My publisher and I are not liable for any damages in using this book or its contents.

How to beat the S&P500 index by 100%

I recommended 20 stocks (pretty diversified) in an article Amazing Return in Seeking Alpha, a web site for investors. If you bought them on the published date, you would have beaten the S&P500 index by over 100% without considering dividends in one year. It is demonstrated in my other article A Tale of Two Portfolios in the same web site.

Book 1: Beginners / Common Tools

Jesse Livermore, considered to be the greatest trader, made millions and bankrupted several times.

The book “How to be a billionaire” is a perfect gift for college graduates. My other investing book for beginners is “Investing for Beginners”.

Links

1 %: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ds5LQXBKtQg

Make your money last

You may never run out of money if you withdraw 4% of your total asset every year.

http://moneyover55.about.com/od/RetirementAccountWithdrawals/a/What-Is-The-4-Rule-In-Retirement.htm

Retire overseas. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-reasons-not-to-retire-in-the-us-2014-08-07

Managed Accounts. http://blogs.marketwatch.com/encore/2014/08/05/managed-accounts-too-pricey-for-retirees/

Section II: Simple techniques

How to start

I recommend trading ETFs first and when the market is not risky. The very basic terms such as ETF are not fully explained here; try Investopedia for terms you need to know. Otherwise this book would be doubled in size and it would bore most readers. Investopedia, your broker’s web site (especially Fidelity) and AAII (requiring subscription) provide many excellent articles. Alternatively, buy a book for beginners. Here are some freebies:

Click here for Morningstar classroom.

http://morningstar.com/cover/classroom.html

Click here for Vanguard.

https://investor.vanguard.com/investing/investor-education

Click here for Investopedia’s Tutorials.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/

Click here for Yahoo!

http://finance.yahoo.com/education/begin_investing

Click here for Fidelity basic in investing.

https://www.fidelity.com/investment-guidance/investing-basics

1 Simplest market timing

How to detect market plunges without charts (a.k.a. Death Cross)

When to return to the market (a.k.a. Golden Cross)

2 Quick analysis of ETFs

Evaluate an ETF

Yahoo!Finance used to give the P/E of an ETF. Try to get it from ETFdb.com.

Alternatively, get similar info from http://www.multpl.com/.

The sources are Fidelity (Equity Summary Score and various comparisons), Finviz and Yahoo!Finance (for EV/EBITDA). Value stocks should be held longer.

simulator.investopedia.com.

#Filler: The Ten Commandments of Investing.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/07/10commandments.asp

1 Where the web sites are

· Free and simple screen sites

They are described in this article or type the following

http://stocks.about.com/od/researchtools/a/071909screenlist.htm

o Yahoo!Finance.

Click here or type

http://screener.finance.yahoo.com/stocks.html

o Finviz.

Click here or type

http://Finviz.com/screener.ashx

How to scan using Finviz (YouTube).

https://www.YouTube.com/watch?v=aQ_0FTg9Cfw

Screening using technical indicators (particularly useful for momentum stocks).

https://www.YouTube.com/watch?v=RZRP2NeSX0s

o Your broker.

Fidelity’s screens are more sophisticated than most.

o More options: Google, CNBC.com and Moringstar.com.

Here is a list.

http://stocks.about.com/od/researchtools/a/071909screenlist.htm

Afterthoughts

Here are the links to screens provided by Marketwatch and NASDAQ.

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/stockre...
http://www.nasdaq.com/reference/stock-sc...

How to find quality stocks.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2381395-how-to-identify-quality-stocks-and-is-there-really-alpha-to-be-had

2 Finviz.com screener

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/candlestick.asp

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsqoV1aVrUc

### Useful articles / YouTubes

Investopedia.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/features-of-Finviz-elite/other-chart-features.asp

How to scan using Finviz (YouTube).

https://www.YouTube.com/watch?v=aQ_0FTg9Cfw

Finviz’s screener tutorial.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glMtwB7OVf4

Swing trading

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8sNMhPJINU

Screening using technical indicators (YouTube). https://www.YouTube.com/watch?v=RZRP2NeSX0s

3 Sectors to be cautious with

To check out whether the stock is an ADR, try ADR.COM (https://www.adr.com/).

Stocks with low volumes (not a sector)

Most likely you pay a high spread to trade these stocks.

Afterthoughts

As of 8/2013, is the emerging market oversold?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1658252-have-emerging-markets-gotten-oversold

4 Piotroski’s F-Score

Piotroski’s system is an interesting strategy.

Gurufocus.com’s (http://www.gurufocus.com/)

Links

F-Score System:

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/piotroski-score.asp

SA article:

(http://seekingalpha.com/article/1806542-a-dividend-portfolio-built-using-the-piotroski-f-score

Book 3: Evaluating Stocks

Section I: Fundamental metrics

Some other metrics may not be easily found in the financial statements such as the intangibles, insider buying, pension obligations, trade secrets, losing market share, brand name, customers' loyalty, etc.

P/E variations

There are other P/E variations like Shiller P/E (same as CAPE and PE10). Shiller P/E can also be used to track the current market valuation.

EV/EBITDA is another way to measure the value of a company. This metric has its advantages and disadvantages over P/E.

4 Fundamental metrics

My current favorites are Forward P/E, PEG, Fidelity’s Equity Summary Score, Short % of outstanding shares, Free Cash Flow, ROE and Debt Load / Equity.

OpenInsider is a good site for this info.

Finviz.com provides a lot of useful information free of charge. It also provides a screen function. The ‘Help’ button describes Finviz’s functions and all the metrics monitored.

Other sources are: Insider Cow, NASDAQ Guru Analysis ...

· Current Ratio = Current Asset / Current Liability. If it is below 1, then the company is having a tough time in meeting its current cash obligations.

· If you use Finviz.com, you find three margins: profit, gross and operating. I prefer to use profit margin that is more useful for most companies. The other two may be relevant in some sectors.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/profitmargin.asp

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/grossmargin.asp

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/operatingmargin.asp

Use Wikipedia for more description.

· Why fundamentals are important.

(http://seekingalpha.com/article/1612442-its-shorting-season)

· Due to my ignorance, limited time or my short period of holding stocks, I have not used intrinsic value that often.

The following link provides more info on intrinsic value.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intrinsic_value_%28finance%29

5 Finviz parameters

Most metrics are described in Finviz (via Help), Investopedia and/or Wikipedia and my chapter on P/E.

Links

PEG: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PEG_ratio

Short %:

http://www.investopedia.com/university/shortselling/shortselling1.asp#axzz2LNDvpemo

Openinsider: http://www.openinsider.com/

Finviz: http://Finviz.com/

terms: http://www.Finviz.com/help/screener.ashx

Insider Cow: http://www.insidercow.com/

Current Ratio: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_ratio

How to find quality stocks.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2381395-how-to-identify-quality-stocks-and-is-there-really-alpha-to-be-had

Section II: Beyond fundamentals

Afterthoughts

· Brand names of big companies are one of the most important intangibles. Here is a strategy to buy big companies in a down market. It has been proven that it works. However, do not just buy these companies without analysis.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1324041-buying-brand-names-in-a-bear-market-can-make-you-rich

7 Qualitative analysis

1. 10-Ks from Edgar database (www.sec.gov/edgar).

Section III: Selling stocks

10 When to sell a stock

Afterthoughts

· Another article on this topic.

http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2013/04/05/stocks-sell/

An article from Investopedia. Nothing new but it is worth having the same second opinion.

http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0412/5-tips-on-when-to-sell-your-stock.aspx

Section V: Other sources

· Here is a good article: 60 Value Resources.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3485446-60-best-value-investing-resources-youd-be-crazy-to-miss

Section II: Monitor parameters

9 Monitor my big gainers

Short squeeze.

The short squeeze happens when the stocks that have been over-sold by the shorters. When the stock is over-sold , those seeking a short position cannot find the extra shares to be shorted, and sometimes the shorters are forced to cover their shorts due to the high expenses of shorting that stock (interests and dividends).

Afterthoughts

· Health care sector. Click here for a SA article.

(http://seekingalpha.com/article/1503232-bull-of-the-day-biogen)

Links

Selling short:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sell_short

Short squeeze:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_squeeze

Over-sold:

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/oversold.asp

13 Investing: Long Term vs. Short Term

1. EV/EBITDA is a good way to measure the value of a company. This metric has its advantages and disadvantages over P/E. It is better as it includes cash (including short-term securities), and debts.

Book 5: Trading Stocks

The following link from Charles Schwab offers a lot of insightful articles on this topic.

http://seekingalpha.com/author/charles-schwab/articles#regular_articles

2 Order prices

Option expiration dates usually cause more volatility.

Links

Selling short:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_%28finance%29

Short squeeze:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_squeeze

Fidelity Video: Stop Loss.

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading/trailing-stops-video

4 Short selling

Links & Articles

Introduction https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMnmTV5HF5Y&list=WL&index=3&t=605s

Tilson

Put Options.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Put_option

Fidelity Video: Options.https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/options/finding-options-strategies/options-analysis-tool-video

Fidelity Video: Selling short.https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading/selling-short-video

6 Covered calls

For basic descriptions on a covered call from Wikipedia, click here or enter (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Covered_call) in your browser.

8 High frequency trading (HFT)

If we can adjust to HFT, we take advantage of it instead of being taken advantage of.

Afterthoughts

· HFT favors large cap stocks with high-volume trades and low prices.

(http://money.cnn.com/2013/07/18/investing/high-speed-traders-stocks/index.html?iid=H_INV_News)

· A Seeking Alpha article.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2125833-how-to-beat-high-frequency-traders

9 Brokers

Link: Comparison. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAewPVEjeLM

10 Fidelity

Link

Fidelity vs Vanguard. I believe Vanguard will improve to be competitive.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tskh-QCCH-o

Afterthoughts

· Bond ETFs: TLT (20+ years Treasury Bond).

Contra Bond ETFs: TBF (Short of TLT). Click here for an article on contra Bond ETFs.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1305371-strategies-for-a-rising-rate-environment-inverse-bond-funds?v=1365862967&source=tracking_notify

Click here for other bond and contra bond ETFs.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1305371-strategies-for-a-rising-rate-environment-inverse-bond-funds#comment_update_link

· Mortgage REIT is similar to a long-term bond. Click here for an article.

(http://seekingalpha.com/article/1548162-mortgage-reit-meltdown-i-told-you-so?v=1373916710&source=tracking_notify)

Links

Bonds:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_%28finance%29

Fidelity:

Bonds vs. Bond Funds

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/mutual-funds/bond-vs-bond-funds

15 Tax avoidance

Tax avoidance is a good way to save some money legally. Tax laws change all the time. Check Wikipedia on current investment taxes. Consult your tax lawyer as my knowledge in taxes is limited, and the tax laws are always changing.

In general for Federal returns on your taxable accounts (as opposed to IRA, Roth IRA, IRA-Rollover and 401K), you have to pay taxes on dividends either at the ordinary income rate or at a qualified rate which is usually lower.

· Sold most profitable stocks that I held more than a year in taxable accounts in 2011 to qualify for long-term capital gains.

link:

https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/frequently-asked-questions-on-gift-taxes

· Avoid wash sales in your taxable accounts

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wash_sale

Afterthoughts

· Tax audit signs.

http://money.cnn.com/gallery/pf/taxes/2014/03/14/tax-audit/index.html?iid=HP_LN

· Fidelity: Investment tax.

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/mutual-funds/tax-implications-bond-funds

ETF Taxes on Foreign Stocks: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2491465-foreign-withholding-taxes-in-international-equity-etfs

Links

Tax Avoidance:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_avoidance

Tax Law:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_tax_%28U.S.%29

Without paying (gift tax):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gift_tax_in_the_United_States#Gift_tax_exemptions

http://www.irs.gov/Businesses/Small-Businesses-&-Self-Employed/What%27s-New---Estate-and-Gift-Tax

AMT: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_minimum_tax

Estate planning fun. http://tonyp4idea.blogspot.com/2014/08/estate-planning-101-for-me.html

16 Trading in retirement accounts

Links

Trading in an IRA link.

https://sixfigureinvesting.com/2012/11/top-15-questions-about-trading-in-an-ira/

Seeking Alpha 1

https://seekingalpha.com/article/907431-simple-rules-for-using-options-in-an-ira

Book 6: Market Timing

³ Get it from http://www.multpl.com/ Same as CAPE.

⁴ Get it from https://www.ici.org/research/stats.

⁷Get it from

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield based on 09/21/18

Federal debt / GDP is about 95% (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/gfdegdq188S) today.

Here is a list of sites for charts.

https://www.stocktrader.com/2013/12/10/best-free-stock-chart-websites/

Section I: Spotting big market plunges

1 Spotting big market plunges

When the Fed discount rate is 5% or above, be careful. This is also the time to buy long-term bonds. When it is 1% or less, most likely the market starts to recover. This is also the time NOT to buy long-term bonds. This strategy was proven in market cycles in 2000 and 2008.

1. Yield Curve.

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/05/13/bear-market-wont-come-until-the-yield-curve-says-so-kleintop/

In 2008, we had a “Double Top” technical indicator that correctly told us a market plunge.

2 More tools & related topics

Using VIX as a timing model

# VIX

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIX

# VIX from Yahoo!Finance.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^VIX+Interactive#

# There are several articles on the topic.

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/434935-south-gent/3373095-vix-asset-allocation-model.

# Ted Talk: 1

http://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornette_how_we_can_predict_the_next_financial_crisis

Other technical indicators

· Head and Shoulder would predict a market plunge as evidenced in 2007.

· MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence). When the indicator is below the zero line, it is bearish and vice versa. Use it as a secondary indicator to detect the market direction.

· When RSI (14) is over 65%, the market is most likely overbought (i.e. over-valued).

Fear and Greed

Here is a good article on P/E and PE10.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2016/11/01/is-the-stock-market-cheap

Link

Double Tops: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doubletop.asp

Double Tops Video.

https://www.YouTube.com/watch?v=b-PaSDJiG2U

4 Retail investors and market timing

The average retail investor has advantages over the fund managers. However, the average retail investor does worse than the market. They buy high and sell low - a kind of herd mentality.

Cramer will tell you how the market is manipulated.

https://www.YouTube.com/watch?v=GOS8QgAQO-k

Section II: Market cycle

5 Market cycle

Afterthoughts

· The Dow Theory has a lot of followers in detecting market directions. In a nutshell, the market heading upwards is confirmed by the Industrial Index and the Transportation Index (less important in today’s market especially with internet sales such as songs and movies), and vice versa. As of 4/2014, the two indexes are not in uniform.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talking-numbers/this-is-a-130-year-old-warning-sign-for-stocks-231901097.html

· Investopedia has several articles on this topic.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/businesscycle.asp

The dynamic yield curve (http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php).

· Total Market Cap / GNP ratio is hotly debated on the market value. Different from the traditional 100%, I would suggest that the boundary ratio should be 130%. If it is over 130%, the market is over-valued and vice versa.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketcapgdp.asp

· The global economy still has not recovered as of July, 2013 according to this article.

(http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10174862/Renewed-fear-of-global-recession-as-companies-rein-in-spending-plans.html)

· Here are some economic indicators.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_indicator

· Buy defensive stocks as Buffett is doing.

8 A non-correlation of the market and business

Afterthoughts

· The global economy still has not recovered as of July, 2013 according to this article.

(http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10174862/Renewed-fear-of-global-recession-as-companies-rein-in-spending-plans.html)

· Here are some economic indicators.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_indicator

· Some REITs are inversely affected by the rising interest rate.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1570772-american-capital-mortgage-investment-was-the-baby-thrown-out-with-the-bathwater

Section IV: Market timing by Calendar

19 Market timing by calendar

· Presidential cycle.

Afterthoughts

· Why September has a bad reputation?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/betting-on-septembers-terrible-odds-2013-08-27?dist=beforebell

· Earnings period announced in Jan., April, July and Oct. would cause big swings in stocks when they have surprises. Earning revisions could be a good predictor.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/earningsseason.asp

Links

Presidential Cycle:

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/08/presidential-election-cycle.asp

Calendar-based market timing:

http://stock-chartist.com/2010/10/calendar-based-market-timing/

Calendar market timing for 2013:

http://www.investorecho.com/archives/8047

· Articles on market top.

Business Insider.

http://www.businessinsider.com/signs-this-is-not-a-market-peak-2013-12

The 15 signs. http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/15-signs-that-we-are-near-the-peak-of-an-absolutely-massive-stock-market-bubble

Section VI: Miscellaneous

25 A sideways market

Links

Resistance line and support line: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Support_and_resistance

29 Articles on the current market

Argue that market is crashing

Time to Sell

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4026143-now-might-right-time-sell-stocks-conservative-investors

Individual Investor Sentiment May Be Too Bullish

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4026188-individual-investor-sentiment-may-bullish

Playings fire: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-bulls-are-playing-with-fire-says-financial-blogger-2017-06-21

Market Breath: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/beneath-the-glow-of-stock-market-records-darkly-bearish-trends-are-lurking-2017-08-04

More: 1 2 3 4

Argue that the market is not crashing

Riding The S&P 500 Wave

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4026367-riding-s-and-p-500-wave

Buffett

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/02/26/warren-buffetts-advice-for-a-stock-market-crash-in.aspx

Book 7: Investing Strategies

Fidelity Video:

Trading strategies

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading/types-of-trading-strategies/overview

Section I: Common strategy ideas

2 Screening stocks

There are more described in this article or type the following

http://stocks.about.com/od/researchtools/a/071909screenlist.htm

Links

Market Neutral http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_neutral

Sector Rotation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sector_rotation

Section III: Riskier strategies

“Nothing risked, nothing gained.”

15 The contrarian

Contrarians invest in the manner opposite of the crowd. Look for extremes in the market sentiment and investing activities and do the opposite.

Links

Contrarian

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contrarian_investing

16 Refined “Dogs of the Dow”

The Dogs of Dow is quite popular and even some mutual fund managers are using it exclusively.

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dogs_of_the_Dow)

18 Trading by headline

I also use Elliott Wave to identify cycles of buying and selling and stages in trends.”

· In addition, Boeing’s suppliers would suffer too similar to Apple’s suppliers on Apple.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/boeing-737-max-jet-production-cut-suppliers-stocks-51554499957?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

18 FAANG stocks

To many investors, FAANG stocks define the market.

19 Earnings season overreactions

It usually starts on the first two weeks after the ending of quarters (Dec., March, June and September) as indicated in the following link.

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/08/earnings-season.asp

21 Strategies that worked before

1. O’Shaughnessy’s Strategy

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_O%27Shaughnessy)

2. The Foolish Four

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foolish_Four)

· Besides from your broker’s site on screening tools, Kapitall has a lot of ideas on building screens and the stock recommendations. Check his articles in Seeking Alpha or their website (http://seekingalpha.com/author/kapitall).

· Garbage in and garbage out. I do not trust the financial statements from most emerging countries. If your screening tools do not provide this filter, check the company’s profile and skip these companies that you may not trust.

· Fidelity’s Predefined screens.

http://research2.fidelity.com/fidelity/screeners/commonstock/strategies.asp?

Links

SA article:

(http://seekingalpha.com/article/1806542-a-dividend-portfolio-built-using-the-piotroski-f-score

More links from YouTube

Simple sector rotation, 2, another 3

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOKTFFabpL8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85IRL__3oR8&t=219s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gu-46zcBwsI&t=177s

Section I: Basic sector rotation

1 Sector rotation in a nutshell

(http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:relative_strength_index_rsi)

Seeking Alpha’s ETF Hub.

http://seekingalpha.com/insight/etf-hub/asset_class_performance/key_markets

Morning Star. Select the period (1 month for example).

http://news.morningstar.com/etf/Lists/ETFReturns.htm

Here is a list of sector ETFs.

(http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/etfs/)

Here is a list of commission-free ETFs from Fidelity.

(https://www.fidelity.com/etfs/ishares)

Afterthoughts

· There are many articles on this topic. They are:

Sector rotation strategies ETF investors must know. There are many useful links.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/etfs/

Sector rotation based on performance.

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:trading_strategies:sector_rotation_roc

Fidelity on Sectors.

https://www.fidelity.com/sector-investing/overview

Video instruction.

http://www.YouTube.com/watch?v=j5yYoOoATRM

· A free (as of this writing) service on sector rotation.

http://www.gosector.com/

3 Sectors

The primary sectors are: Materials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, Financial, Real Estate, Health Care, Industrial, Information Technology and Utilities. Click the above links from Fidelity, or search from Fidelity, Investopedia and/or Wikipedia for a description of these sectors.

Fidelity has its own definition and overview as described in this link:

https://www.fidelity.com/sector-investing/overview

GIGS (developed by MSCI and S&P500) separates more than 29,000 stocks into 11 major sectors.

Links

A list of sectors.

http://www.investorguide.com/sector-list.php

Check’s sector analysis.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2806655-the-stock-market-2015-a-sector-by-sector-valuation-perspective-part-1-an-overview

7 How to determine a reversal

Complicated method

A Candlestick charts tell more about an ETF’s or stock’s movement.

The technical term is engulfed candlestick.

Find the best sectors with best values (based on P/E for example) and select the top one or two best momentum ETFs as described here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwfrdxxtULk&list=WL&index=112

Section III: Strategies

Strategy 3: Rotation of more Sectors

The primary sectors are: Basic Materials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, Financial, Health Care, Industrial, Technology and Utilities. Click the links or search from Wikipedia for description of these sectors.

https://www.fidelity.com/sector-investing/overview

Reference

ETFs / Mutual Funds in Appendix

Quick Analysis of ETFs in Common Tools

Sectors to be Cautious in Book: Finding Stocks

Technical Analysis for Sector Rotation in Book: Technical Analysis

Links

A list of sectors.

http://www.investorguide.com/sector-list.php

Check’s sector analysis.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2806655-the-stock-market-2015-a-sector-by-sector-valuation-perspective-part-1-an-overview

Strategy 5: Country sectors

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South-North_Water_Diversion_Project

Source: Ted Talk.
http://www.ted.com/talks/yasheng_huang.html

China: https://tonyp4idea.blogspot.com/2021/05/links-to-youtube-videos-and-articles-on.html

Afterthoughts

http://ebmyth.blogspot.com/2013/11/more-on-aging-population.html

Links

Water re-directed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South-North_Water_Diversion_Project

Ted Talk.

http://www.ted.com/talks/yasheng_huang.html

Strategy 7: Market correction

Refer to Market Correction in Book: Market Timing (included in this book).

Strategy 8: Using calendar

Refer to Market timing by calendar in Book: Market Timing (included in this book).

Strategy 10: Sector subscription

Links

There are three articles in Seeking Alpha on this topic.

Developing a Rotation Strategy Using Highly Diversified ETFs:

Part I, Part II and Part III.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2045483-developing-a-rotation-strategy-using-highly-diversified-etfs

Sectors as of 7/2014.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2322765-sector-rankings-for-etfs-and-mutual-funds

AlphaProfit: http://www.alphaprofit.com/

Strategy: http://etfdb.com/2013/3-sector-rotation-strategies-etf-investors-must-know/

Book 9: Insider Trading

1 Define Insider Trading

If you need more information, click this link from Wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insider_trading

Book 10: Penny stocks and micro caps

1. Penny stocks.

The majority of them described in this book are traded in OTCBB (OTC bulletin board) and OTCQX (OTC Markets Group. In addition, there are many others listed in local exchanges in both the US and foreign countries.

Links

Penny Stocks http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penny_stocks

Micro Cap http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microcap_stock

OTCBB http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OTC_Bulletin_Board

OTCQX http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pink_Sheets_LLC

2 Penny stocks

Links

Scanning penny stocks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7iZpWmwBheI

3 Micro caps

I enjoy micro caps (stocks between 50M to 300M according to the SEC) more than penny stocks as they’re less risky.

Use Stock Level 2 Quotes to show you how many buy orders and sell orders are lined up.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/06/level2quotes.asp

Book 11: Momentum Investing

Afterthoughts

There are several SA articles on similar topic, click here, here and here.

The links are:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1336291-does-momentum-investing-actually-work?v=1365785958&source=tracking_notify

http://seekingalpha.com/article/865091-how-price-momentum-and-bull-markets-go-together?source=kizur

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1350651-seeking-alpha-momentum-investing-with-etfs

Book 13: Technical Analysis (TA)

1 Technical analysis (TA)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdYNaE5GJ0k

Afterthoughts

Technical Analysis tutorial.

https://www.YouTube.com/watch?v=GENBVwV8PMs

SMA tutorial.

https://www.YouTube.com/watch?v=Na-ctpPsnks

Links

Fidelity video: Technical Analysis

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/technical-analysis/chart-types-video

4 Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have been proven useful for traders. In theory, the stock is traded between the upper band and the lower band forming an envelope. For more info, click the following link.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bollingerbands.asp

5 MACD

MACD, Moving Average Convergence Divergence, is an effective momentum (i.e. short-term) indicator used by most traders.

6 Other TA indicators/patterns

Double Bottom is a bullish pattern as the support line is stronger than the resistance line.

Double Top is the opposite and is a bearish pattern.

Resistance and Support. The trend line indicates the trend of the stock.

Cup and handle is a bullish pattern.

Head & Shoulder is a bearish pattern while the reversed Head & Shoulder is a bullish pattern.

Stochastic Oscillator.

Link

Chart patterns. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6hZma0bajE

7 More on technical analysis

(http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:relative_strength_index_rsi)

Click here for another article.

(http://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Relative+Strength+Index)

· Cup and handle is a popular indicator of when the stock price would surge.

(http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cupandhandle.asp)

· Double bottom indicates that the stock will move up.

(http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:double_bottom_revers)

Epilogue

Book update.

https://ebmyth.blogspot.com/2020/12/updates-for-all-books.html

My blog:

https://tonyp4idea.blogspot.com/

Final notes

Thanks for reading this book and I hope it will be beneficial to your financial health. If so, comment on it on Amazon.com or the place you bought this book. I will be very grateful.

Appendix 1 – All my books

· Complete the Art of Investing (highly recommended combining most of my books on investing). The Kindle version has over 850 pages (6*9).

· Sector Rotation: 21 Strategies and another book Shorting (highly recommended for short-term investors) have more specific chapters on the topic and share many articles with “Complete the art of investing”.

· Best stocks for 2021 2^nd Edition. Not a promise: Another “Best stocks” books available on July, 2021 and Dec., 2021, and every year hopefully.

· China: “Apocalypse or Co-prosperity (highly recommended). Trade War (most popular in this category). Trade War & Pandemic. Rising China. A Nation of No Losers. Can China Say No. Global Economies. Pandemic.

· Books for today’s market: Profit from Coming Market Crash.

· The following books are in a series: Finding Profitable Stocks, Market Timing and Scoring Stocks. Alternate book Using Fidelity.com.

· Books on strategies: “Profit from bull, bear and sideways markets” (Rotation + Momentum + ETF Rotation + trend following), Trading System (similar to printed version of Complete), Swing (Rotation + Momentum), ETF Rotation for Couch Potatoes, Momentum, SuperStocks, Dividend, Penny & Micro Stock, and Retiree.

· Books for advance beginners: Be an expert (highly recommended), Introduce, Investing for Beginners, Beat Fund Managers, Profit via ETFs, Buffett, Ideas, Conservative and Top-Down.

· Miscellaneous: Lessons in Investing. Investing Strategies. Buy Low and Sell High. Buy High and sell Higher. Buffettology. Technical Analysis. Trading Stocks.

· Concise Editions and Introduction Editions are available at very low prices and are competitive with books of similar sizes (50 pages) and prices ($3 range).

Most books have paperbacks. Links and offers are subject to change without notice.

Best stocks to buy for 2021 2^nd Edition

We care about performance only. The last book beats the market (SPY simulating S&P500 index) by wide margin. The new edition has another list of recommended stocks. Click here for the book or type the following for more info on the book.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08W3KQY42

Performances

Management Summary

Book

Beat SPY by

(see Methodology)

Best Book for 2021

83%

Best Book to Buy from August, 2020”.

29%

This new edition of “Best Book for 2021” has a new list of recommended stocks. SPY is an ETF simulating the S&P500 index. For my stock recommendations before the next book, you can be my Patreon and search for Tony Pow. https://www.patreon.com

Performance of the first edition of my book “Best Stocks for 2021”

Besides the primary list of recommended stocks, we have several lists.

The date range is from 12/10/2020 (the publish date) to today, 02/06/2021 (almost two months later). It is close to the publish date of this edition. See Methodology for details.

List (#of stocks)	Return	Annualized	Beat SPY¹
Primary list (4)	10%	67%	83%
Primary list without GLD (3)³	14%	92%	152%
Secondary list (6)	29%	185%	406%²
Year-End list (5 )	8%	49%	34%
Secondary list for Year-End (5)	10%	65%	78%
Secondary list without foreign countries (2)	34%	215%	486%²

¹ “Beat SPY by” = (Return – SPY Return) / SPY Return. Again, dividends & fees are not considered.

² Not a typo.

³Gold is optional and it is used for safety.

The numbers have been rounded up for easier to read. Interestingly, the secondary lists performed better. All lists have positive returns and beat SPY by good margins. It seems this time the research work with the current market conditions; it may not in future conditions. I am not responsible for any errors; I did double check the figures.

Performance of my last book “Best Stocks to buy from August, 2020”

The performance is the returns from 07/28/2020 to 12/07/2020. The average of the 14 recommended stocks beats SPY (an ETF simulating S&P500 stocks) by 29%. The 29% is unbelievable as SPY has been weighted heavily by a lot of tech stocks such as Apple, Tesla and Microsoft, and they have been increased in value substantially during this period. If you believe they will continue this trend, SPY or any ETF weighted on tech stocks would be beneficial. However, I believe they are peaking and the fall seems inevitable – it is my personal opinion.

There are 13 winners and 1 loser. Again, dividends and fees have not been included. CMCSA and FDX are big winners profiting from the pandemic.

Symbol	Name	Sector	True EY	Return	Ann. Return
ABBV	AbbVie	Drug	7%	10%	27%
ABT	Abbott	Drug	3%	8%	21%
CHE	Chemed	Diversified	4%	4%	12%
CMCSA	Comcast	Media	11%	19%	52%
FDX	FedEx	Transport	8%	76%	211%
GTS	Triple-S	Health	N/A	26%	72%
JNJ	Jonson & J	Drug	6%	2%	4%
MCK	McKesson	Drug	8%	16%	45%
MSFT	Microsoft	Software	4%	6%	18%
SCHN	Schnitzer	Metal	10%	46%	127%
SMCI	Super Micro	Computer	11%	9%	24%
UFPI	Universal	Building	10%	-6%	-17%
UNH	United Health	Health	9%	15%	43%
ZBRA	Zebra Tech	Computer	5%	39%	107%

Avg.				19%	53%
			SPY	15%	41%
	Beat SPY by				29%

Appendix 2 - Our window to the investing world

The paperback version of this chapter can be found in the following link.

http://ebmyth.blogspot.com/2013/11/web-sites.html

· General

Wikipedia / Investopedia /Yahoo!Finance / MarketWatch / Cnnfn / Morningstar /CNBC / Bloomberg / WSJ / Barron’s / Motley Fool / TheStreet

· Evaluate stocks

Finviz / SeekingAlpha / MSN Money / Zacks / Daily Finance / ADR / Fidelity / Earnings Impact / OpenInsider / NYSE / NASDAQ / SEC / SEC for 10K and 10Q (quarterly) reports required to file for listed stocks in major exchanges.

· Charts

BigCharts / FreeStockCharts / StockCharts /

· Screens

Yahoo!Finance / Finviz / CNBC / Morningstar /

· Besides stocks

123Jump / Hoover’s Online / FINRA Bond Market Data / REIT / Commodity Futures / Option Industry

· Vendors

AAII / Zacks / IBD / GuruFocus / Vector Vest /

Fidelity / Interactive Brokers / Merrill Lynch /

· Economy.

Econday / EcoconStats / Federal Reserve / Economist /

· Misc.

Dow Jones Indices / Russell / Wilshire /

IRS / Wikinvest / ETF Database / ETF Trends /

Nolo (estate planning) / AARP /

Appendix 3 - ETFs / Mutual Funds

Fidelity: Index ETFs (https://www.fidelity.com/etfs/overview).

Wikipedia on ETF (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchange-traded_fund).

List of ETFs

ETF data base (Recommended): http://etfdb.com/

ETF Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/etfs/

ETF Trends: http://www.etftrends.com/

A list of ETFs. Seeking Alpha.

http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/)

A list of contra ETFs (or bear ETFs)

http://www.tradermike.net/inverse-short-etfs-bearish-etf-funds/

Misc.: ETFGuide, ETFReplay

Fidelity low-cost index funds: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zpKi4_IJvlY

Fidelity Annuity funds with performance data.

http://fundresearch.fidelity.com/annuities/category-performance-annual-total-returns-quarterly/FPRAI?refann=005

Table by market cap:

Category	ETF	Mutual Funds	Fidelity’s Annuity	Contra ETF	Alternate
Size:
Large Cap	DIA	See Blend		DOG
	SPY			SH	FXAIX VOO
	QQQ			PSQ	FNCMX
	RYH
Blend	IWD	BEQGX
Growth	SPYG	FBGRX			FSPGX
Value	SPYV	DOGGX			FLCOX
Dividend	NOBL	FRDPX
	VYM

Mid Cap			FNBSC	MYY
Blend	MDY	VSEQX
Growth		STDIX
		BPTRX
Value		FSMVX

Small Cap			FPRGC	SBB	FSSNX
Blend	IWM	HDPSX
Growth		PRDSX			FECGX
Value		SKSEX			FISVX

Micro	IWC

Multi
Blend		VDEOX
Growth		VHCOX
Value		TCLCX
Total					FSKAX
Bond
Long Term (20)	VLV	BTTTX		TBF
Mid Term (7 – 10)	VCIT	FSTGX
Short Term (1 – 3 yrs.)	VCSH	THOPX
Total	BOND	PONDX
Corp Invest Grade	VCIT	NTHEX
High Yield (junk)	PHB	SPHIX
Muni	MUB	Check state

Special situation
Buy back	PKW

Table by sectors:

Sector	ETF	Mutual Funds	Fidelity’s Annuity
Banking¹		FSRBK
Regional	IAT
Bio Tech	IBB	FBIOX
	XBI	Large
Consumer Dis.	XLY	FSCPX	FVHAC
Consumer Staple	XLP	FDFAX	FCSAC

Finance	KIE	FIDSX	FONNC
	IYF
Energy	XLE	FSENX	FJLLC
Energy Service		FSESX
Gold	GLD	FSAGX
Gold Miner	GDX	VGPMX
Health Care	IYH	FSPHX	FPDRC
	VHT	VGHCX
House Builder	ITB	FSHOX
	ITB	Perform
Industrial	IYJ	FCYIX	FBALC

Material	VAW	FSDPX
	IYM

Oil	USO
Oil Service	OIH	FSESX
Oil Exploration	XOP
Real Estate	VNQ	FRIFX	FFWLC
REIT	VNQ

Retail	RTH	FSRPX
	XRT
Regional bank	KRE	FSRBX

Semi Conduct	SMH
Software	XSW	FSCSX
	IGV
Technology	XLK	FSPTX	FYENC
	FDN	FBSOX
		ROGSX

Telecomm.	VOX	FSTCX	FVTAC
Transport	XTN
	IYT
Utilities	XLU	FSUTX	FKMSC

Wireless		FWRLX

Footnote. ¹ Also check Finance.

Table by countries outside the USA:

Country	ETF	Mutual Funds	Fidelity’s Annuity	Alternate
Australia	EWA
Brazil	EWZ
Canada	EWC	FICDX
China	FXI	FHKCX
EAFE	EFA
Emerging	VWO	FEMEX	FEMAC	FPADX
Europe	VGK	FIEUX
Global	KXI	PGVFX
Greece	GREK
India	INDY	MINDX
Indonesia	EIDO
Latin America	ILF	FLATX
Nordic		FNORX

Hong Kong	EWH
Japan	EWJ	FJPNX
S. Africa	EZA
S. Korea	EWY	MAKOX
Singapore	EWS
Taiwan	EWT
	TUR
United Kingdom	EWU
Foreign:
Combination
Intern. Div.	IDV			FTIHX
Small Cap	SCZ
Value	EFV
Europe	VGK

#Filler: Honey, my book can play music.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxGT5z6d-GA&list=PLMZa6mP7jZ2b1otqG4tfbgZpLEdh6YiNF

It may cut down commercials by casting it to TV.

Friday, May 14, 2021

1 Simplest market timing

3 Sectors to be cautious with

Book 3: Evaluating Stocks

Section I: Fundamental metrics

7 Qualitative analysis

10 When to sell a stock

2 Order prices

4 Short selling

1 Spotting big market plunges

5 Market cycle

Section IV: Market timing by Calendar

19 Market timing by calendar

25 A sideways market

29 Articles on the current market

16 Refined “Dogs of the Dow”

Section III: Strategies

Book 9: Insider Trading

7 More on technical analysis

Epilogue