Book store managers

 

If you are a book store owner, consider the following books. Some are my best sellers. You can order the following books from Createspace.com (part of Amazon.com). Subject to changes without notice.

 

Book	List  Price	No. of Pages1	Link
Investing:
Complete art of investing	$24.95	612	Click here
Sector Rotation: 21 strategies	$24.95	431	Click here
Sell Short Stocks/ETFs	$26.95	552	Click here
Be a stock expert in 5 minutes. Expanded Edition.	$14.95	203	Click here
Best stocks for 2021, 2nd Edition	$19.95	387	Click here
Politics:
China and US: Apocalypse or Co-Prosperity	$14.95	428	Click here

 

¹  From Amazon.com as of 12/20/2020. It is for reference only as it may vary with revisions.

The above books are recommended for better marketability in book stores.

"Complete art of investing" covers almost all topics in investing except day trading.

I claim to have the best-performed article in Seeking Alpha history, an investing site, for recommending 15 or more stocks in one year after the publish date without using options and leverage. All the techniques have been described in this book.

"Sector Rotation: 21 strategies". I used the technique in this book to grow this account by 4 times thru out the years.

 "China and US: Apocalypse or Co-Prosperity" represents my summaries of all of my books on China with a lot of updates. It represents views very different from most other books in this topic.

The new book "Sell Short Stocks / ETFs" is also recommended: $26.95 and 552 pages. Click here for more description.

Predictions for 2021

 

Predictions for 2021

 

The following is from a Bloomberg article with my comments. Most will not happen. If it starts to materialize, consult your financial advisor before take actions accordingly. Again, I am not liable for any actions. This article is written in 12/2020.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-15/if-2020-wasn-t-enough-stanchart-has-eight-big-risks-for-2021

 

1.       We will find soon whether the U.S. Senate would by dominated by Democrats with the result of the Georgia’s seats. If the Democrats control the senate, then “Technology shares plummet and U.S. Treasury Yields surge on supply fears”.

 

My comment: It is easier to pass the proposed laws without fierce opposition. I prefer the opposition party gives reasons of rejecting and/or how to amend any proposed laws instead of just saying “No”.

2.       “U.S. and China find common ground”. Yuan would appreciate.

 

My comment: It would likely to happen as Biden is less confrontational than Trump. Yuan’s appreciation would cause the U.S. consumers and Chinese exporters. If they take out the bans on Huawei, actually it would be good for the U.S. chip suppliers to China in the long run. It is explained in the co-prosperity chapter (one of 4 outcomes in this trade war) in my book “China and US: Apocalypse or Co-Prosperity”.

3.       “Monetary and fiscal stimulus drives strongest recovery… Copper rallies 50%”.

 

My comment: It also adds to our national debt. It would have inflation, lower our competitive edge and shaken our USD as the reserve currency. Most investors should have 5 to 20% in gold ETFs and/or gold miners.

4.       “Oil prices fall back to $20 barrel”.

 

My comment. $30 is my estimate if it happens. Many oil companies have good forward P/Es. In some locations, green energy is about the same price as oil. OPEC has not been united.

5.       “EUR/USD falls to 1.06 by midyear”. No comment as there are too many other factors.

6.       “Dollar crashes 15%”. It is likely to me. That is why we should use gold and metal as a hedge.

7.        “Emerging-market debt defaults… equities fall 30% by second quarter”.

 

My comment. Likely, as they have been overly extended. China may forget some debts in building their infrastructure. Avoid this risky market as the “potential reward / risk” is not justified.

8.       “Biden steps down…Sharp correction in the U.S. equities…dollar decline accelerates”.

 

My comment: I predicted the same in my article “Disaster in 2020”. I also predicted the VP will be the first woman president within 5 years for many reasons including Chinese astronomy:

 

·         Due to bad health; not a surprise for his old age.

·         Unable to unite the divided country.

·         Poor economy leading to high unemployment and poor stock market. ‘

 

I also add my own prediction here. China would be the only developed countries that have a positive GDP in 2020. U.K. may have another year of depression due to the new strain of the virus, exit from EU and China’s revenging actions similar to Australia.

 

China recovered from this pandemic in less than 90 days and the factories started to return to normal in April, 2020. The bottleneck now is lack of ships and containers to export their products. If it continues in 2021, China’s GDP could be back to 7% (some even predicted 20%). With “One Belt, One Road” and expanding economy, their digital currency would challenge our mighty USD. Despite of the U.S. delisting, I expect Chinese stocks will gain in 2021.

 

Our economy is deteriorating fast (judging my unemployment and no. of bankruptcy), but the market is up due to the excessive printing of money as of 2/2921. Our margin debt is at record high. I bet when the market crashes, it will be steep – prepare yourself using stops for example.

 

Link: One’s opinion  2 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMFTsZraau0&t=661s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_GmXf7Hk2Y

Selling GME

 

Lessons from selling GME

 

Game Stop (symbol GME) has been up 16 times from the low and still is climbing up. There are several lessons to learn and review.

 

·         Super stocks. Based on your time available for monitoring stocks, you should have a handful of stocks comprised the majority of your portfolio; I have about 10. GME and GILD were my super stocks at the time. Both were more than 3 times my average position.

 

·         Stops. Both GME and GILD were in the downward trend when they were acquired. I was glad I did not use stops on them to give the market more time to recognize their real values. I sold GILD before the surge. Lesson: Do not put stops on value stocks, but it is fine on momentum and/or on short selling. With manual stops, you may lose up to 100% at most, but not 1,600% in the worst case for GME.

 

·         Shorting. Do not short stocks when the short percent (from Finviz or other sources) is over 20%; usually I use 10%.

 

·         Short squeeze. GME had experienced serious short squeeze. The trade volume for one day was 140M, while the number of floating shares was only 50M. Lesson: Watch for the short percent. I recommended in this book the stocks with short 25% (from Finviz) are buy candidates.

 

·         I do not understand why the short shares can be more than the floating shares (114%). Some shares could be shorted more than one time. 

 

·         I sold 1/3 at about $26 and the majority at about $40 just a few days later. I should follow my article on selling winners.

 

·         Usually I keep good record of the stocks I bought. I did not this time. Hence, I cannot tell you my real returns and my annualized returns and the comparisons to S&P500. Most stock brokers do not give you the buy date. You need to include the metrics such as P/E and Debt/Equity for future evaluation of other stocks. A simple spreadsheet will do the housekeeping.  From my estimate, I made about 300% in trading GME.

 

·         I will not buy it back for several reasons: (1) It has more than its fair value (still losing money), (2) The short squeeze will be over if not already, (3) Most malls have few visitors as this writing, (4) The future of buying software is via downloading, (5) They do not have moats and advantage over their competitors such as Amazon and Target, and (6) The management is good in selling pet food, which is quite different from selling video games and consoles. Do not look back. As of 2/4/2021, it went up to more than 400 and today’s price is 92.

 

·         From Finviz, I read 2 good articles on GME.

 

·         Luck has a lot to do with this trade. If I waited for a week, I could have made many times. Usually I sold my stocks after making 100%, not I made 300%. A broker offered cash for moving to their account. I did not look at this account where I have my GME more often than my primary account.

 

It is a crazy situation that retail investors giving the hedge funds and their investors a tough time; some may go bankrupt and their investors would lose a lot. Invest in hedge funds carefully. Hedge funds used to take advantage of retail investors. They lead us to trade what they want us to trade and determine the trends of many stocks. With the social media, the retail buyers strike back.