Amazing Return

Special Version. 

I have several requests for this book. It will take a while to finish it (tentative target date: 4/1/2013). I offer the pre-release version for $9.95 and I'll send the finished version in PDF format when it is ready at no additional charge. As of today this book is about 95% finished but not polished. I will have a limited number of readers for this version and I hope they will give me comments.


How to order.

1. Send a check of 9.95 to Tony Pow, 3 Sleeper Dr., Burlington, MA 01803.

Include your email address with title Book order for Myth. I'll send you the PDF version.


2. PayPal account.
If you do not have a PayPal account, open one at PayPal.com at no charge. The advantage is you do not have to give a credit card number to a stranger. It takes minutes and eventually most should have one.

Pay $9.95 to pow_tony@yahoo.com from your PayPal.com.

Email me with the email title: Book order for Myth.
I'll send you the PDF version by reply.

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Special add $1 to include another ebook, A Nation of No Losers.





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One reason out of 90 reasons to buy the book.
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            My great short-term performance

As of 12/25/12, there are many analysts showing their average yearly returns and/or their returns of the top 10 stocks. It would be far too complicated to do the same for a trader like me. I have been accumulating cash and at the same time bought a lot of deeply-valued stocks in last 90 days. Let’s check how I perform so far on these stocks.

I have an average return of 11% while the average SPY is about 1%. Hence I beat SPY by 11 times. However, beating SPY 10% is quite good and 11 times (1,100%) is just amazing. Do not get too excited yet. This phenomenal return could be one time only. It could be improved stock picking technique, plain luck, or a combination. If I can achieve similar return consistently, I will post it in the Afterthoughts in my blog for this book.

From my memory, my best return is 2009 in my largest taxable account (2003 could be another good one but I did not keep good record). It is over 80% beating about 3 times SPY.

There are 20 purchases during this period. Some stocks I bought twice and counted as two purchases.

The four losers are MSFT (-8%), ACTV (-5%), KTCC (-1%) and IAG (-1%). The better winners are: VELT (64%), ALU (38%), ANR (33%) and QCOR (19%). The following are in 14% to 16% range: DECK, NC and BSX (2 purchases). I would like to include the entire spreadsheet on all my purchases, but it will not look good on an ebook with limited width for display. Click here for the list.

I have excluded the stocks that I bought in last 15 days (too early for reliable results) and the stocks that I am testing a strategy by trading them every month. This strategy so far looks promising with good gain and almost no effort on my part. I’ll include the result in my blog for this book if it proves itself to be profitable. It is based on common stocks of two subscription services.

 If I can include Cisco, the result could be even better. It has been bought three times on 7/24/12 and it has gained 31% as of 12/25/12.

In this period, I have been accumulating cash expecting a big dip. As of 12/12, my prediction has not happened, so the market timing does not work so far. It is my case of winning the battle but losing the war. 

Afterthoughts My great short-term performance

Deeply-valued stocks in last 90 days								Open
	Buy		Today or		Days	Return		SPY			Beat
Stock	Buy Date	Price	Sell Date	Price			Ann %	Buy	Today	%	S&P
CAMP	12/24/12	8.06	12/24/12	8.05	0	0%		142.25	142.35	0%
WNC	12/18/12	8.31	12/24/12	9.18	6	10%		144.00	142.35	-1%
ZIGO	12/17/12	14.81	12/24/12	15.12	7	2%		142.47	142.35	0%
APPL	12/14/12	515.00	12/24/12	520.168	10	1%		142.32	142.35	0%
MIL	12/11/12	8.51	12/24/12	8.44	13	-1%		143.06	142.35	0%
QCOR	12/11/12	25.16	12/24/12	30.04	13	19%		143.06	142.35	0%
MPC	12/10/12	57.76	12/24/12	62.37	14	8%		142.21	142.35	0%
CRUS	12/10/12	27.41	12/24/12	27.93	14	2%		142.21	142.35	0%
BANR	12/07/12	29.46	12/24/12	30.43	17	3%	71%	142.53	142.35	0%	2707%
KTCC	12/06/12	9.91	12/24/12	9.9	18	0%	-2%	141.37	142.35	1%	-115%
QCOR	12/07/12	26.16	12/24/12	30.04	17	15%	318%	142.53	142.35	0%	11844%
KTCC	12/06/12	9.96	12/24/12	9.9	18	-1%	-11%	141.37	142.35	1%	-180%
ACTV	12/05/12	4.91	12/24/12	4.68	19	-5%	-90%	141.37	142.35	1%	-776%
IAG	12/05/12	11.16	12/24/12	11.09	19	-1%	-12%	141.37	142.35	1%	-190%
ADES	12/04/12	15.60	12/24/12	16.5	20	6%	105%	141.44	142.35	1%	797%
NC	12/03/12	52.00	12/24/12	59.72	21	15%	258%	142.80	142.35	0%	4811%
VELT	12/03/12	3.24	12/24/12	5.31	21	64%	1110%	142.80	142.35	0%	20374%
ANR	11/28/12	6.81	12/24/12	9.03	26	33%	458%	135.90	142.35	5%	587%
APPL	11/16/12	513.11	12/24/12	520.168	38	1%	13%	135.90	142.35	5%	-71%
C	11/14/12	34.95	12/24/12	39.38	40	13%	116%	138.21	142.35	3%	323%
DECK	11/13/12	30.01	12/24/12	34.84	41	16%	143%	138.59	142.35	3%	493%
MSFT	11/13/12	27.02	12/24/12	27.06	41	0%	1%	138.59	142.35	3%	-95%
ALU	11/13/12	1.00	12/24/12	1.375	41	38%	334%	138.59	142.35	3%	1282%
DLTR	11/09/12	37.41	12/24/12	40.05	45	7%	57%	137.62	142.35	3%	105%
CAT	11/08/12	84.06	12/24/12	87.48	46	4%	32%	139.70	142.35	2%	114%
MSFT	11/07/12	29.27	12/24/12	27.06	47	-8%	-59%	141.66	142.35	0%	-1650%
BSX	10/24/12	5.09	12/24/12	5.78	61	14%	81%	141.93	142.35	0%	4481%
BSX	10/19/12	5.41	12/24/12	5.78	66	7%	38%	141.93	142.35	0%	2211%
Total/Avg						11%	148%			1%	2353%
						20				Actual	1020%

Afterthoughts: Sell Short

Here are many good comments on shorting. Read the comments on this blog.

The original blog was written in June 30, 2011. Hence, some comments seem out-of-date, but it is good to check whether the prediction is correct.

Afterthoughts: Metrics for stock evaluation.

Here is from my recent experience:

My trading on this stock involves several buys and sells so far. Here is the trade history. In 12/14/12, I have two buys. As of 10/07/14, I still own the stock.

Buy On	At	Sell On	At	Days	Return	Ann. Return
12/14/12	8.06	01/17/14	32.07	389	298%	279%
12/14/12	8.06	01/08/14	30.00	380	272%	261%
04/24/14	18.48	06/17/14	20.11	53	9%	61%
04/28/14	17.56	10/07/14	19.80	162	13%	29%

CAMP is a good stock to trade as the fundamentals were quite good most of the time. When the fundamentals are good, buy it. When they are bad, sell it.

I can tell the price and its P/E were exceedingly high in Jan, 2014 and that’s the reason I sold it besides qualifying for the long-term capital gain. On 1/17/14, the stock was high valued at $32.07 with P/E = 24 and RSI = 65. It was even higher valued at $32.80 with P/E = 104 and RSI=67. 

It looked like a double top to me in Jan. to March. A double top predicts a plunge. The price dropped almost half in April, 2014 and I picked the stock up two times at decent prices. From the chart, notice the double bottom, a technical indicator that predicts a surge.  Use the double top and bottom as a secondary indicator.

Today, the stock was up by about 20% after the earnings announcement. The forward P/E looks very decent and so is my Pow P/E (similar to P/E with cash and debt into consideration) with almost one dollar cash per share and only 1% debt/equity.