Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Tables on Commodity Chapter




The stocks

I include 16 stocks (one is an ETF) for analysis. After initial analysis, I classify them into the following groups.



Coal
Gold miner ETF
General Mining
Steel
Petroleum
w Nat Gas
No.
11
1
1
1
2
Stocks
ACI,ANR,ARLP,BTU,CLD,CNX,JRCC,NRP,WLB,WLT, YZC
GDX
RIO
SID
CHK,DVN
  





Value

These stocks have very high potential for appreciation. However, they are risky. Most have high debts (the average debt/equity is 133% in this group) and their survival depends on many factors.

Stock
Price (7/4/13)
Forward
Yield
Cash
Flow
P/B
Debt/
Equity
P-
Score
ACI
3.69
-35%
Worst
.3
184%
-4
ANR
5.33
-75%
Worst
.2
70%
-6
ARLP
71.06
10%
Avg
3.6
109%
8
BTU
14.86
3%
Worst
.8
126%
-2
CHK
20.92
5%
Worst
1.1
106%
1
CLD
16.19
5%
Worst
1.0
83%
-2
CNX
27.12
10%
Worst
1.6
81%
-1
DVN
53.05
5%
Worst
1.1
82%
-2
JRCC
1.82
-80%
Worst
.3
255%
-5
NRP
20.48
10%
Avg
3.4
172%
3
RIO
40.69
10%
Avg
1.6
57%
0
SID
2.61
15%
Worst
5.6
329%
2
WLB
11.4
5%
Best


-1
WLT
10.79
-35%
Worst
.5
276%
-2
YZC
7.03
15%
Best
.5
90%
4

BTU has coal mines in Australia, which is closer to its customer, China. RIO has mines of different ores all over the world. ARLP and NRP are partnerships.

GDX. an ETF for gold miners, is not included in the above table. It has a non-correction between GLD, the ETF for gold, so I believe there is good value in gold miners.

Most data are obtained from finviz.com. Forward yield is my estimate and it is defined as forward E/P. Cash Flow is based on the free site Blue Chip Growth. Cash Flow and Debt / Equity measure whether the company will survive. The table does not include all the metrics. P-Score is based on my book Storing Stocks and 3 is the passing grade.



Safer
Middle
Risky
No.
3
6
7
Stocks
ARLP, NRP, YZC
CHK, BTU, GDX, RIO, SID, WLB
ACI, ANR, CLD, CNX, DVN, JRCC, WLT


I have two scoring systems. One is described in my book Scoring Stocks and the other one uses information from several subscription services. In general, the two systems are quite compatible.

YZC scores the highest and it has a high dividend yield.

ACI and ANR though risky have the most upside potential and both prices are less than 30% of their book values.

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