Monday, November 25, 2013

Web sites



Appendix  1   – All my books


·         Complete the Art of Investing (highly recommended combining most of my books on investing). The Kindle version has over 850 pages (6*9).

·         Sector Rotation: 21 Strategies (highly recommended) has more specific chapters on the topic and shares many articles with “Complete the art of investing”.

·         Best stocks for 2020. Best stocks from the recovery of the pandemic. Not a promise: “Best stocks for 2021” available on Dec. 15, 2020 with end-of-year recommendations and another version on June 15, 2021 with mid-year recommendations.

·         China: Trade War & Pandemic (highly recommended). Rising China, Falling U.S.A combines the best of many articles from my books on politics. Fall of an Empire: U.S.A. A Nation of No Losers. Can China Say No. Global Economies. Trade War with China. Pandemic.

·         Books for today’s market: Profit from Coming Market Crash.

·         The following books are in a series: Finding Profitable Stocks, Market Timing and Scoring Stocks. Alternate book Using Fidelity.com.

·         Books on strategies: “Profit from bull, bear and sideways markets” (Rotation + Momentum + ETF Rotation + trend following), Swing (Rotation + Momentum), ETF Rotation for Couch Potatoes, Momentum, SuperStocks, Dividend, Penny & Micro Stock, and Retiree.

·         Books for advance beginners: Introduce (highly recommended), Billionaire (perfect gift for recent college graduates and they will thank you when they become millionaires), Investing for Beginners, Beat Fund Managers, Profit via ETFs, Buffett, Ideas, Conservative and Top-Down.

·         Miscellaneous: Lessons in Investing. Investing Strategies. Buy Low and Sell High. Buy High and sell Higher. Buffettology. Technical Analysis. Trading Stocks.

·         Concise Editions and Introduction Editions are available at very low prices and are competitive with books of similar sizes (50 pages) and prices ($3 range). 

Most books have paperbacks. Links and offers are subject to change without notice.

Appendix  2   – Complete the Art of Investing



Instead of buying 16 books, why not buy one book (Complete the Art of Investing) consisting of 16 books? Besides saving money and your digital shelve space, it gives you quick reference and concentration on the topic you’re currently interested in. It covers most investing topics in investing excluding speculative investing such as currency trading and day trading.
The Kindle version has about 850 pages (6*9), about the size of three books of average size. With the cost of $10 and at least 850 investing ideas, it is about one cent per idea. Most other books have only a few ideas in the entire book.

The 16 books

This book “Complete Art of Investing” is divided into 16 books as follows. Click for the link to the book described in Amazon.com. I squeezed more than 3,000 pages into 850 pages by eliminating duplicated information such as evaluating stocks.


The book links are subject to change without notice.

“How to be a billionaire” is for beginners and couch potatoes, who can use the advanced features of this book in the simplest and less time-consuming techniques. Most advance users can skip this section unless they want to use some of the short cuts described.

We start with the basic books Finding Stocks, Evaluate Stocks, Trading Stocks and Market Timing. You can select and start with one of the many styles and strategies in investing such as swing trading and top-down strategy.  Many tools are described in other books such as ETFs, technical analysis, covered calls and trading plan.

Many books start with “Why” to lure you to read more and are followed by “How” and then the theory behind the book.
If the book you’re reading is beneficial to you, imagine how it would with 850 pages.

# 
Most readers’ comments are on “Debunk the Myths in Investing”, which this book is originally based on. As of 2018, I did not know any of the commentators on my books.
“I skipped ahead to his chapter book 14 (of “Complete the Art of Investing”), Investment Advice just to get a feel of his writing style. His research is phenomenal and doesn't overwhelm with big words or catchy "sales-like" tactics.

I truly believe this ordinary man, Mr. Tony Pow, has a gift of explaining his experience as an investor without the bull crap of trying to make you buy his stuff. He seemingly just wants to share his knowledge, tips, and clarity of definitions for the kind of folks like me who want to understand something FIRST before jumping in with emotions of trying to make a boat load of money. I like the technical analysis side he brings.

Mr. Tony Pow talks about hidden gems in his book; well....quite frankly, he is a hidden gem. Thank you and I will also post my comments about this author to my Facebook page!” – JB, Jan. 2016 on this book.
“Excellent book, recommend to all investors… great knowledge.  It has fine-tuned my investing strategies… Your book is hard to set aside, as I read it all the time learning good techniques and analysis of stocks, ETF... Since I purchased your book in March, I have underlined, highlighted and placed tabs on top of pages for quick reference.” – Aileron on this book, July, 2016.

“Tony, I just finished reading your 2nd edition.  It’s my pleasure to report that I found it most interesting.  You’re welcome to use this blurb if you like:
Debunk the Myths in Investing is an all-encompassing look at  not only the most salient factors influencing markets and investors, but also a from-the-trenches look at many of the misconceptions and mistakes too many investors make.  Reading this book may save not only time and aggravation but money as well!”
Joseph Shaefer, CEO, Stanford Wealth Management LLC. 11/2013.
 “Tony, Great work!” from James and Chris, who are portfolio managers.

'Debunk the Myths in Investing' is a comprehensive book on investing that deals with many aspects of this tense profession in which with a lot of knowledge and a bit of luck (or vice versa) one can greatly benefit…

Therefore 'Debunk the Myths in Investing' is an interesting book that on its 500 pages offer a lot of knowledge related to investing world and many practical advice, so I can recommend its reading if you're interested in this topic.”
-  Denis Vukosav, Top 500 Reviewers at Amazon.com.

490 pages (Debunk) of a genius's ranting and hypothesis with various theories throughout, written light-heartedly with ample doses of humor…Yes, the myth of not being able to profitably time the market is BUSTED…

One might ask... Why is he giving away the results of his hard-earned research for only $20? He states that his children are not interested in investing and wants to share his efforts with the world.” -  Abe Agoda.

“Excellent book, recommend to all investors… great knowledge.  It has fine-tuned my investing strategies… Your book is hard to set aside, as I read it all the time learning good techniques and analysis of stocks, ETF... Since I purchased your book in March, I have underlined, highlighted and placed tabs on top of pages for quick reference.” - Aileron, July, 2016 on this book.

 “Great stuff, Tony. It's great to meet experienced traders such as yourself. I had a browse through the book and think your method is a little more refined than mine.”
“Your strategy is very rules based and solid. I sometimes envy people who have developed something like this.”

Making 50% in one month

I claim to have the best one-month performance ever for recommending 8 or more stocks without using options and leverage. My following return is 57% in a month or 621% annualized. They are slightly different as I calculated the average from the averages of three different accounts. The average buy date is 12/26/18 and the “current date” is 01/28/19.
The performance may not be repeated. I will use the same screen for the coming years and even the expected 10% (or 120% annualized) is very good.

I used the same screen for searching stock candidates. I spent a total of about 20 hours from Dec. 15, 2018 to Jan. 5, 2019.

Stock
Buy Price
Sold or Current Price
Buy date
Sold or Current date
Profit %
Profit % Ann.
Status
CHK
2.13
2.99
01/03/09
01/18/19
40%
982%
Sold
MNK
16.41
21.45
01/03/19
01/25/19
31%
510%
Sold
MNK
16.43
21.45
01/03/19
01/25/19
31%
507%
Sold
NNBR
5.68
8.58
12/26/18
01/28/19
51%
565%

NNBR
5.72
8.58
12/26/18
01/28/19
66%
727%

ESTE
4.35
6.45
12/26/18
01/18/19
48%
766%
Sold
LCI
4.61
8.29
12/21/18
01/28/19
80%
767%

MDR
8.01
9.13
01/08/19
01/28/19
14%
255%

YRCW
3.29
5.78
12/21/18
01/28/19
76%
727%

YRCW
3.26
5.78
12/21/18
01/28/19
77%
742%

ASRT
3.56
4.18
12/26/18
01/28/19
17%
193%

UTCC
7.13
11.00
12/26/18
01/28/19
54%
600%

YRCW
2.92
5.78
12/26/18
01/28/19
98%
1083%



Best one-year return

I claim to have the best-performed article in Seeking Alpha history, an investing site, for recommending 15 or more stocks in one year after the publish date without using options and leverage.

Sector Rotation: 21 Strategies


·         On 5/26/2020, I searched for “Sector Rotation” under Amazon’s Book. They are listed in the same order except my book Sector Rotation: 21 Strategies.

Book
Date
Size1
Kindle $1
Hard $
Sector Rotation: 21 Strategies
05/2020
425
$9.95
$24.95
Super Sectors
09/2010
289
$26.39
$49.95
Dual Momentum Investing
11/2014
240
$40.40
$42.20
Sector Investing
05/1996
260

$29.94
Sector Trading Strategies
08/2007
164
$26.39
$16.66
The Sector Strategist
03/2012
225
$26.39
$44.96
ETF Rotation
10/2012
125
$9.95
$14.99
Optimal… Sector Rotation
07/2015
80

$44.07






1  From Amazon on size and prices as of 5/25/2020.

My book won in all categories except the price for hard copy in one. However, my book won as the lowest cost per page by a wide margin. In addition, as of 5/2020 I bet that no author besides me made over 4 times using sector rotation starting the amount more than his yearly salary then.

·         I have 21 strategies in sector rotation while most books have only one. It ranges from simple rotation of a stock ETF and cash for beginners to many advanced strategies for experts. Most other books have one or two strategies.

·         Andrew, a contributor on Sector Rotation article at Seeking Alpha, said, “Great stuff, Tony. It's great to meet experienced traders such as yourself. I had a browse through the book and think your method is a little more refined than mine.”

·         Do not be fooled by past performances. Just check the recent performance of the top 50 stocks selected by IBD in the last five years. The mediocre result (hopefully it will change) could be due to too many followers and/or there is no evergreen strategy. I seldom heard the fantastic results from the followers of O’Neil, our greatest chartist. The adaptive strategy of this book shows you how to select the most profitable strategy for the current market.

·         I switched most (if not all) my sector funds in April, 2000 from technology sectors to traditional sectors (better to money market fund). We can reduce losses by spotting market plunges and the sector trend.

My motivation to write this book is sharing my experiences, both bad and good. I provide simple-to-follow techniques using the free (or low-cost) resources available to us. I have been successful in investing for decades. I am enjoying a comfortable financial life. I do not hold back my ‘secrets’ as my children are not interested in investing. If you are looking how to make 100% return overnight, there are many other books claiming to do so and this book is not for you. This book describes how to be a ‘turtle’ investor making fortune gradually and surely. Be warned that many books written by authors who have never make money in the stock market.

Appendix  3 -   Our window to the investing world


The paperback version of this chapter can be found in the following link.

·         General
·         Evaluate stocks
Finviz  / SeekingAlpha / MSN Money / Zacks / Daily Finance / ADR  /  Fidelity / BlueChipGrowth / Earnings Impact / OpenInsider / NYSE / NASDAQ / SEC /  SEC for 10K and 10Q (quarterly) reports required to file for listed stocks in major exchanges.
·         Charts
·         Screens
·         Besides stocks
·         Vendors
·         Economy.
·         Misc.
Nolo (estate planning) / AARP /


Appendix  4 -   ETFs / Mutual Funds


What is an ETF



List of ETFs
A list of ETFs.  Seeking Alpha.

Fidelity’s commission-free ETFs. Check current offerings and whether they are still commission-free. 

Fidelity Annuity funds with performance data.

A list of contra ETFs (or bear ETFs)

Misc.: ETFGuide, ETFReplay (highly recommended).

Other resources
Your broker should have a lot of information on ETFs and many offer commission-free ETFs.

Most subscription services offer research on ETFs. IBD has a strategy dedicated to ETFs and so does AAII to name a couple.

Seeking Alpha has extensive resources for ETF including an ETF screener and investing ideas.

Not all ETFs are created equal
Check their performances and their expenses.

Small but well-performing ETFs
Here is a list.

Guggenheim Spin-Off ETF (CSD) looks interesting. The ETF tracks corporate spinoffs. It has beaten SPY for a long time; check the current performance. Not a recommendation.

When not to use ETFs
I prefer sector mutual funds in some industries but you need to do extensive research. They are drug industry, banks, miners and insurers.

Half ETF
Taking out half of the stocks that score below the average in an index ETF could beat the same full ETF itself. I call it HETF (half the ETF). You heard it here first.

To illustrate, sort the expected P/E (not including stocks with negative earnings) in ascending order and only include the stocks on the first half. Add more fundamental metrics. It will take a few minutes.

Disadvantages of ETFs

·         When you have two stocks in a sector ETF one good one and one bad one, the ETF treats them the same. Stock pickers would buy the one that has a better appreciation potential.
·         The return is better than the actual return due to stock rotation. To illustrate this, on August 29, 2012, SHLD was replaced by LYB in a sector fund. SHLD was down by 4% and LYB was up by 4% primarily due to the switch. Unless you sell and buy at the right time (which is impossible), your return would not match the ETF’s returns due to the replacement.
·         Ensure the performance matches the corresponding index, but will most likely not include dividends.

Advantages of ETFs

·         We have demonstrated that you can beat the market by using market timing. Between 2000 and Nov., 2013, you only exit and reenter the market 3 times and the result is astonishing.
·         It is easy to rotate a sector vs. buying/selling all of the stocks in this sector. It makes sector rotation the same as trading a stock.
·         The risk is spread out and your portfolio is diversified especially for a market ETF or buying three or more ETFs in different sectors.
·         Eliminate the time in researching stocks.

Leveraged ETFs

I do not recommend them. Some are 2x, 3x and even higher. They’re too risky. However, when you are very sure or your tested strategy has very low drawdown, you may want to use them to improve performance. I recommend skipping all leveraged ETFs.

My basic ETF tables
I use a list of selected ETFs and commission-free (check the details) ETFs from Fidelity for my purpose. I include some mutual funds in Fidelity’s annuity. Some of these may be interesting to you.  I use ETFs for sector rotation and parking my cash when the market is favorable and I do not have stocks that I want to buy.

ETFs and funds come and go. Some ideas and classifications are my own interpretation.

Table by market cap:

Category
ETF
Fidelity
ETF
Mutual
Funds
Fidelity’s
Annuity
Contra
ETF
Size:





  Large Cap
DIA

See Blend

DOG

SPY



SH

QQQ
ONEQ


PSQ

RYH




    Blend
IWD
IVV
BEQGX


    Growth
SPYG
IVW
FBGRX


    Value
SPYV

DOGGX


    Dividend
NOBL
DVY
FRDPX



VYM










  Mid Cap



FNBSC
MYY
    Blend
MDY
JJH
VSEQX


    Growth

IJK
STDIX





BPTRX


    Value

IJJ
FSMVX








  Small Cap



FPRGC
SBB
    Blend
IWM
IJR
HDPSX


    Growth

IJT
PRDSX


    Value

IJS
SKSEX








Micro
IWC










Multi





  Blend


VDEOX


  Growth


VHCOX


  Value


TCLCX








Bond





  Long Term
   (20)
VLV

BTTTX

TBF
  Mid Term
    (7 – 10)
VCIT

FSTGX


  Short Term
    (1 – 3 yrs.)
VCSH

THOPX


  Total
BOND

PONDX


  Corp
  Invest Grade
VCIT

NTHEX


 High Yield
  (junk)
PHB

SPHIX


 Muni
MUB

Check state



Table by sectors:

Sector
ETF
Fidelity
ETF
Mutual
Funds
Fidelity’s
Annuity
Banking1


FSRBK

  Regional
IAT



Bio Tech
IBB

FBIOX


XBI

Large

Consumer Dis.

XLY
FDIS
FSCPX
FVHAC
Consumer
Staple
XLP
FSTA
FDFAX
FCSAC





Finance
KIE
FNCL
FIDSX
FONNC

IYF



Energy
XLE
FENY
FSENX
FJLLC
Energy  Service


FSESX

Gold
GLD

FSAGX

Gold Miner
GDX

VGPMX

Health Care
IYH
FHLC
FSPHX
FPDRC

VHT

VGHCX

House Builder
ITB

FSHOX


ITB

Perform

Industrial
IYJ
FIDU
FCYIX
FBALC





Material
VAW
FMAT
FSDPX


IYM








Oil
USO



Oil Service
OIH

FSESX

Oil
Exploration
XOP



Real Estate
VNQ

FRIFX
FFWLC
REIT
VNQ








Retail
RTH

FSRPX


XRT



Regional bank
KRE

FSRBX

Semi Conduct
SMH



Software
XSW

FSCSX


IGV



Technology
XLK
FTEC
FSPTX
FYENC

FDN

FBSOX

Telecomm.
VOX
FCOM
FSTCX
FVTAC
Transport
XTN




IYT



Utilities
XLU
FUTY
FSUTX
FKMSC
Wireless


FWRLX


Table by countries outside the USA:

Country
ETF
Fidelity
ETF
Mutual
Funds
Fidelity’s
Annuity
Australia
EWA



Brazil
EWZ



Canada
EWC

FICDX

China
FXI

FHKCX

EAFE
EFA



Emerging
VWO

FEMEX
FEMAC
Europe
VGK

FIEUX

Global
KXI

PGVFX

Greece
GREK



India
INDY

MINDX

Indonesia
EIDO



Latin America
ILF

FLATX

Nordic


FNORX






Hong Kong
EWH



Japan
EWJ

FJPNX

S. Africa
EZA



S. Korea
EWY

MAKOX

Singapore
EWS



Taiwan
EWT




TUR



United Kingdom
EWU



Foreign:




Combination
1
2
3
4
  Intern. Div.
IDV
DWX


  Small Cap
SCZ
GWX


  Value
EFV



  Europe
VGK