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Shorting a stock is costly (Chapter 80). To
illustrate, shorting 200 shares of TSLA will cost me over $3 interest a day. It
will be over $1,000 for interest for a year (more if it pays dividends).
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Do not buy any stock with P/E over 40 or a
negative earning without a good reason.
Still not convinced? Try this link. Of course, there are exceptions such
as Google. There are more losers than winners.
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I could be wrong when Tesla builds a car less
than $40,000. It would be economical when the government chips in $7,000 and
you drive more than 10,000 miles per year. The following is from Wikipedia
based on the $80,000 Tesla.
"...Tesla Motors to sell
customers a replacement battery pack for $12,000, to be installed after the
7-year/70,000 miles (110,000 km) lifespan of the original pack, resulting in a
net battery cost of 17.1¢/mile. Adding this to the electricity costs of
1.4¢/mile[132] above results in an overall cost equivalence of $4/gal ÷
18.5¢/mile = 21.5 mpgge,[148] which can be compared to conventional car ratings
after transmission, engine, and other drivetrain replacement costs are factored
into the mpg ratings for those cars."
Perhaps battery life will be better than seven years and/or the cost of the battery pack will come down. However, chemistry is not electronic otherwise we would have a battery that can drive a car for a month without charging and it can fit into your pocket.
Perhaps battery life will be better than seven years and/or the cost of the battery pack will come down. However, chemistry is not electronic otherwise we would have a battery that can drive a car for a month without charging and it can fit into your pocket.
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The current Tesla owners are selling the company’s
products. It is a good marketing model, but it may not be a good business model
by giving the blades free for life. Every time I posted this article, I had
many attacks from Tesla owners, but not from a single Volt owner. Tesla could
be a winner and Volt is a proven loser.
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Peter: Great post. A lot of money will be lost
on Tesla when the music stops. You need to separate the man - and Musk is
brilliant - from the stock itself.
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The potential competitor could be from China if
we let their electric cars in.
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Good counter argument article.
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If I spend $90,000
for a car, it should come with a chauffeur who should not bother me when and
where to get gas or charge. I'm busy reading my WSJ or my Playboy.
Even if I can afford the $90,000, I still want to drive my CR-V, so I would not be mistaken of being a rich man and be robbed. In addition, no one is stupid enough to steal my car!
I treat it as a potential stock to buy and I'm not biased unless I have the stock or a Tesla (in case no one will service my car when the company is out of business.
I would conclude it is a compliance car, an experimental car, a car to surge my social standing (see my blog)... I believe it is a car before its time (after learning from Volt.
Even if I can afford the $90,000, I still want to drive my CR-V, so I would not be mistaken of being a rich man and be robbed. In addition, no one is stupid enough to steal my car!
I treat it as a potential stock to buy and I'm not biased unless I have the stock or a Tesla (in case no one will service my car when the company is out of business.
I would conclude it is a compliance car, an experimental car, a car to surge my social standing (see my blog)... I believe it is a car before its time (after learning from Volt.
·
Several comments from
SA on the battery, the soul of the electric car.
Tesla's
battery costs are more like 420/kwh. There is no possible way they can build a
40k car with that battery cost. Although this article misses a lot and doesn't
really factor in the utter simplicity of an EV, it still is correct. With
present battery costs Tesla is stuck selling high end automobiles.
Now what happens if battery costs come down? Ah -- efficiencies of scale, simplicity of design and cheap batteries will allow Tesla to build 30-40k cars with at least a 10k gross profit. Remember. No amazingly complicated ICE. No exhaust. No Transmission. No gearbox. No starter motor. No fuel system.
Now what happens if battery costs come down? Ah -- efficiencies of scale, simplicity of design and cheap batteries will allow Tesla to build 30-40k cars with at least a 10k gross profit. Remember. No amazingly complicated ICE. No exhaust. No Transmission. No gearbox. No starter motor. No fuel system.
If battery costs and weight come down significantly and if majors
are slow to respond, Tesla goes to the moon. If not, well, we are all stuck
with 125/share stock that is worth maybe twenty bucks. But this is a gamble,
seems to me worth taking. And, ultimately, is a bet on the collective ingenuity
of the chemists of the world who are well-financed and have huge financial
incentives to succeed.
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Electricity used in
EVs has been tax free (except the normal taxes from the electricity bills). Who
is going to pay for the highway repairs and other routine expenses from the gas
taxes?
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I have ordered the
2020 model. It is supposed to have a battery that only needs charging once a
month and there is a charging station in every block in any city. It can be fit
into your pocket - I'm using the logic in the advances of PCs. In addition, it
only costs $30,000 in today's money. If we do not dream, nothing will be accomplished
and life would not be fun.
Go back to my dream again.
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