Many chapters of 'Nation of no losers' are deleted and retired here.

Section VIII Current events

105 Politics and investing

You may ask why politics is discussed in this investing book. Politics has been proven to affect the market. For example, the market had reacted to the different stages of Quantitative Easing whose dates had been preset. The following is a more recent example.

I predicted 2015 would be a year with small profit and insisted on so even during the fierce correction in August. Why I was so sure? Very seldom the market is down in a year before an election year including 2007. The last occurrence was 1939, the year when WW2 started. Investing is a multi-discipline venture including statistics and politics. It may not always happen, but the probability is high for these years.

How to profit

2015 was a sideward market. The market reacted to good news and bad news. The strategy for sideways market is: Buy at temporary downs and sell at temporary peaks. Define ‘temporary’ according to your risk tolerance.

For the ‘temporary market down’, personally I used 5% down from the last market peak. To me the ‘temporary market peak’ is 10% up from the last market down. The percentages can apply to the percentage changes in the stocks in your watch list. In another words, I buy the stock when the market is 5% down from the last peak and sell it when it gains 10% or the market gains 10%. Be reminded that this strategy is opposite of market plunges, where you should exit the market totally - again depending on your risk tolerance.

The following are my purchases on 08/26/2015. I should have bought more stocks and one day earlier if I were not blinded by fears (a human nature) during this correction. Here is my proof for my purchase orders as I was asked to. The four stocks were described as value stocks in a SA article and I did a simple evaluation. As of 12/31/2015, I sold all the four stocks except Gilead Sciences. The annualized returns are more impressive such as GNW’s 10% gain in one day.

Stocks	Buy Price	Buy Date	Return	Sold date
Apple (AAPL)	107.20	08/26/15	12%	10/19/15
Gilead Sciences (GILD)	105.94	08/26/15	-4%
General Motors (GM)	27.69	08/26/15	12%	09/17/15
Genwealth Financial (GNW)	4.54	08/26/15	10%	08/27/15

There were similar examples in 2013 and 2014.

2016: Politics and the market

No one including all the Federal Reserve chairmen / chairwomen and all the Nobel-Prize winners in economics can predict market plunges. One chairman predicted a smooth market and a few months later the housing market crashed! Many predicted correctly market crashes by pure luck. One even received a Nobel Prize and became famous. However, you are glad to ignore his later market predictions.

There are at least two best sellers asking us to exit the market in 2009. If you followed them, you would miss all the big gains from 2009 to 2014. They did have a point though. However, you cannot fight the Fed. The market had been saved by the excessive printing of money and hence created a non-correlation between the market and the economy. I bet these authors (famous economists and gurus) may have not made a buck in the stock market except selling their books or teaching where his students should request refunds. It is a classic case of the blind leading the blind or diversion of theory and reality.

From their articles, they do not know the basic technical indicator. You only want react to the market when the market is plunging and not too early. That’s why most fund managers cannot beat the market as most are not allowed to time the market. Buffett had mediocre returns in the last five years – I had warned my readers three years ago in my blogs/books. To me, the ‘buy-and-hold’ strategy is dead since 2000. The average loss from the peak for the last two market plunges is about 45%. Most charts depend on falling prices, so you will not save 45% and 25% loss is my objective.

Fundamentally speaking

The market in 2016 is risky due to the proposed interest rate hike (as of 4/15 the Fed indicated only .5% so it would not be a factor), our record-high margin, strong U.S. dollar (as of 4/15, it is weaker) and the high expenses of the wars to start. Each reason could be a good-size article. Personally I try to maintain 50% in cash and would flee the market if my technical indicator tells me so.

Politically (and statistically) speaking

The election year is the second best for the market, but it may not be this year. We seldom have three terms from the same political party. For that, I predict a win by the Republicans. Republicans are usually pro-business, but ironically the democratic presidency has better track record for better market performance.

The market has more than recovered since the day when Obama took office. The S&P500 performance under Republicans vs. Democrats since 1926 to 2014 is approximately:

Annualized return under Democratic presidencies: 13%
Annualized return under Republican presidencies: 6%

The market is riskier based on the above statistics. In addition, there is a good chance that we will have either a non-politician president or a lady president for the first time (more materialized in 4/16). The market usually does not favor to this kind of change. Statistics do not mean it will happen but history repeats itself more often in investing.

Critical political issue for 2016

On our way back at about 4 pm on a Saturday, the bus was full of Spanish-speaking workers. I bet most are illegal workers working in my suburb such as our malls, the hospital and many restaurants. Why illegals? I bet most legal folks would get welfare instead of working in that shift. If they work, the state would take away the freebies such as health care in Mass. The illegals do not have this option. I do not think the politicians understand this. There is no need to build a border wall but punishing the employers who hire illegals. Before we do this, we need folks to take the jobs taken by the illegals today.

What will happen if the politicians turn the illegals to be legal? There will be nobody doing these low-level jobs I predict. No one in the right mind wants these jobs when it is far easier to collect welfare. Why would politicians make this stupid decision? They want to buy Hispanic votes as evidenced in the last two elections.

In addition, most politicians side with the welfare recipients. Since 40% of the population does not pay Federal taxes, the politicians have to satisfy their needs in order to buy votes.

We should encourage folks to work, not the other way round. Representation without taxation is worse than taxation without representation.

Our high taxes, increasing minimum wage, regulations and strong US dollar dampen our competitive edge.

Some political decisions/regulations that affect the stocks

Beside the presidency and the interest rate hike(s), there are many political decisions and regulations that affect the stocks. Just name a few here:

· The never-ending wars postpone our secular bull market beyond 2020.

· Solar City (SCTY) and this sector depend on government energy credit.

· My Chinese solar panel stock evaporated when the US banned them from importing to the US.

· Any gun control measurement will affect gun stocks (initially positive).

· When Hillary talked against bio tech stocks or the coal mines, that sector sank.

· When the government proposed de-privatizing the prison, CWX lost 35% of its value in one day.

· Restrictions on cigarettes if China and Russia follow our bans.

· Our immigration policy and great colleges attract the best all over the world to come to the U.S. At the same time, we need to limit economical refugees from burdening our entitlement systems.

· France imposes extra taxes to foreign investors.

· Government bailouts on ‘too big to fall’ companies.

· High corporate taxes boost the exodus of corporation headquarters to tax heavens for the US.

· Infrastructure projects.

· Taking out the ban to export oil would increase the profits for oil companies.

· After the annexation of Crimea, the Congress restricted using Russia’s rocket engines and gave new opportunity to the US companies in this area. Besides political consideration, Chinese rockets are the most cost effective and more reliable.

· China’s suppressing corruption affected Macau’s casinos. Actually every major change in Chinese policy affects the world and global investors.

Currently the policy of forcing Chinese banks to take stocks in failing companies makes me stay away from investing in all Chinese banks.

Summary

Politics affects the market. I predict a risky market in 2016.

Economy and religion also affect the market. Statistically speaking, the market is ahead of the economy by about 6 months. However, the current market is an exception due to the excessive money supply. The correlation will return to normal.

Religions cause wars as the ones in the Middle East today. These huge expenses are consumption, not investing. It will not be good for most sectors of the economy especially in the long run.

Written in 1/1/2016.

106 Presidential election of 2016

I do not like the presidential candidates from both parties. We have to choose the lesser of two devils. I am political neutral and seldom read articles on politics. You may find the following refreshing. Most are my original ideas but they are just common sense.

· The major problem of our political system is buying votes. The politicians have to satisfy the voters. When 40% of the citizens do not pay Federal income taxes, their requirements will be satisfied first.

· Most politicians do not tell you how to finance all the freebies such as free tuition. We need to force the government to balance the budget.

· We have to ensure the campaign promises are fulfilled. We still have the two Middle East wars, not as promised. We should fix our infrastructures and invest with the resources that go to the wars. Being number one is only important to our leaders.

· Making illegals legal can buy many Hispanic votes. The best idea from the politicians is work visas. When they are legal, it is easy collecting welfare than working on jobs no one want. They will also burden our entitlement systems by bringing their family members in.

· It is far more effective to punish the employers for hiring illegals than building a wall; you can make a small hole of the wall or build a small tunnel to let the illegals in.

· The welfare system discourages folks to work. Why you want to give up free medical delivery (in many states) by taking a job?

· Gun control has not been discussed much. I know it is impractical to enforce it. However, we should not let the guns sold to the mentally retarded, criminals…, especially the semi-automatic weapons. Hope someday we can send our children to school or see a movie without worrying about being shot at. Written on 5/2016.

Links to my blog

Politics and Investing. Some told me it is the most detailed article on this topic.

Politcal convention, a satire. What the government should be.

107 The US economy as of 2017

After Trump was elected, we have a brief stock market rally. It could be the peak by today (July, 2017). The market is usually ahead of the economy by about 6 months. However, they have been non-correlated since 2009. Let’s examine the US economy briefly here.

Reduction of individual tax and corporate tax

The reduced corporation tax could stimulate the economy and it could lure some corporations to return their HQs to the US. The downside is we need the revenues to finance infrastructure projects.

China

We have been financed by Chinese via selling our treasuries. China is switching their reserves to the “One Belt, One Road” projects.

Easy money is going away

CEOs should manage their corporations instead of boosting the stock prices via easy financing.

Interest rate will be up

Investors should be careful about the hikes of interest rate. As long as it is 1% or less for 2017, it should have little impact. To illustrate this, if the rate hike is 1%, you lose 10% interest for a 10-year bond. However, you only lose 2% if it is a 2-year bond. With our recent record-high of margin in buying stocks, the market could crash when interest rate surges.

Inflation

Historically it is about 3% and currently it is about 2%. If your CD returns 1% and inflation is 2%, you lose 1% but you need to pay taxes on interest of a 2% CD. Uncle Sam is always the winner. When too many money are chasing a limited number of goods, we should have higher inflation.

Bankruptcy & loan delinquencies

Corporations would bankrupt if they cannot pay back the loans or not able to pay lawsuit claims. Personal bankruptcies increase if more small businesses fail. There are two other kind of failing loans: mortgages and autos. Both would depress the economy and the market.

108 Global economies as of 2016

When I look at the East, Europe is burning. When I look at the West, China is burning. I’m still playing my mandolin (actually not looking at my statements from my broker). The majority of the global economies are connected. When one suffers, the rest suffer too. Let me review some economies briefly.

The U.S.

I have to postpone the secular bull market prediction to 2020 or even later. The market for 2016 is risky. The election year is the second-best year for the market statistically. I do not bet on this one as there are too many negatives. The only bright point is the Fed may postpone interest hike to reduce the risk of this market. In addition, we have produced a lot of jobs for the last four years even their median wage is far lower than the one in 2007.

I bet the market will be correlated with the economy finally next year. They have not correlation since 2009 due to the excessive printing of money. Obama did NOT save the economy as no one can by simply printing money. However, it creates more debts for the next generations to pay.

The tool has been copied all over the world and it is no longer effective. Our strong USD (less as of 5/2016), our huge war expenses, strict regulations, high national debts, generous welfare, taxes and entitlements dampen our competitive edge. The strong USD would reduce the profits of our most global companies. A heavy blow would be legalizing the illegal workers by politicians who want to buy votes.

Asia

China is suffering economically. Given enough time, China’s market-driven economy will work. The current downfall drags down many resource-rich countries such as Brazil. After a taste of capitalism, no Chinese want to return to communism, which discourages folks to work hard – who will when everyone is paid the same?

Chinese are the greatest copycats. If you believe it is that simple to copy, there should be many copycats beside China or the U.S. invites the Chinese to copy. Japan, Korea and even the US (not paying Hitler for using their missile technology…) had been copy-cats at least once in moving to a developed country.

We need to protect our inventions and intellectual properties. I am not convinced they can copy our top-secrets such as the top jet fighter that easy. If they do, there is something wrong with us. Cybersecurity should be our priority for the corporations and the government. When the copycat improves their products and sells them at about ¼ our price, we are hard to compete.

Chinese has been dominated the world in almost everything for the last 20 centuries except the last three. It has saved them a lot by copying and stealing. Today, most of their big projects have a clause to transfer technology. They’re willing to pay handsome fees for technologies they want such as high-speed train from Siemens. Many companies including the U.S. give out the secrets which may be paid in large part by the U.S. tax payers to China for market access. Most of China’s military weapons imports are from Russia and Russia needs the cash to improve their weapons.

Japan is declining due to the ageing population and the poor relationship with China. Contrary to popular belief, India’s demographics do not help. The growing population with a lot of youths is consuming all the resources that are already proportionally small.

It will be hopeless for at least another year. Euro is a good concept especially for tourists. In reality, it does not work. There are too many free loaders such as Greece taking advantage of the unified currency and foreign loans. The influx of Syrian refugees is a big burden. Tens of thousands will help to reduce their labor costs but not a million of refugees. It is hard for the Catholics to co-exist with Protestants (evidenced by Ireland), so I cannot know how the Christians co-exist with the refugees with most are Muslims.

What should we do?

· Not legalize the illegals.

· Cut down entitlements.

· Reduce taxes (both corporate and personal).

· Reduce the role of the global policeman.

· Invest in cybersecurity.

· Think like a terrorist in order to fight terrorism.

The reality

Politicians will stay away from most of “What should we do” as they would hurt election. We have record-high exodus of corporations and the rich due to high taxes.

Today are we threatened by Vietnam of being a communist country? If some country does not like how we treat the minority, should they send soldiers to invade us? If their country men do not want to fight for their freedom, why we risk our young to fight for them?

With the state-of-the-art weapons, we still cannot win in the Middle East wars. Re-think our options. One option is let them resolve their conflicts.

As of 2/2016, investors should be cautious on the market. However, we may have over-reacted to the problems in China and the falling oil price. Oil is usually in the opposite direction of the economy. However, today it flows in sync with the market due to Saudis and Russia’s dumping of oil via the Sovereign Wealth funds (SWF) to rescue their economies.

The U.S. unemployment is at 5% (virtually full employment from the government’s yardstick) although the median salary is still not comparable to the one in 2007. In 2007, the unemployment is huge. The recession could be spared at least for now as long as the oil price and the unemployment are stable.

109Reasons for the 2017 Crash

For the last few years, most market predictors have their crystal balls broken. It is due to the excessive supply of money that leads to a non-correlation of the economy and the stock market. It cannot last forever. It will correlate again when the money supply is reduced.

The incredible recovery of the market from 2007-8 is due to the excessive printing of money (i.e. money supply). It leads to easy credit to buy stock (margin debt) and buyouts/corporate profits. With more money to buy stocks and fewer stocks to buy (buyouts), it is a simple case of Supply and Demand.

2015 was a tough year to predict. I predicted a gain between 0 to 5%. I even confirmed it again in Seeking Alpha during the fierce market correction in August, 2015. Since World War II, we never had a down year in a year just before election including 2007. I buy at dips and sell at temporary uptrend in a sideways market until 2016. As usual, there are two camps in opposite directions for predicting 2017.

Good News

· The market is slightly over-priced. SPY’s P/E is about 21 (from 18 2 years ago) vs. the normal 15.

· The economy is improving slowly.

· Energy cost is reducing (bad for the energy sector).

· Most corporations have good profits though it is being reduced.

Bad News

· Margin debt is in the record high. The market would usually plunge the next year after that year.

· Corporate debt has been very high. Those companies that cannot service their debts will bankrupt.

· Interest rate will climb in 2017. It will be very small. Will the Fed want to raise interest rate? I do not know as they do not act logically. Logically they should, but I am sure they will not hike interest rate in the election year of 2016.

· A market bubble is forming. It is due to many buy-backs (via cheap credit). When you have more funds (again via cheap credit) to chase the reduced number of stocks, a bubble is being formed.

· The national debts (partly due to our endless wars) and obligations (partly due to our aging population) are high as a percentage of the GDP. If we legalize the 4 million illegals, how many of them will give up their jobs and collect welfare?

· The USD will be strong in 2016. It will not be good for export to compete and it will be less and fewer profits converted to USD from foreign profits.

· Very seldom we have three terms of the same political party in charge. Most likely we will have a Republican president in 2016 from this logic. However, it is very seldom we have a candidate who is not a politician. By statistics, the pro-business Republican is not good for the stock market. Ironic!

· Wall Street usually does not favor changes: a woman president or Trump, who is not a politician.

What should we do

I would watch how the above will materialize. The weather man can predict the weather in the next few days better than the next month.

When the market is down, we need to know whether it is a correction or the start of a market plunge. For a correction, you want to buy stocks as in Oct. 15, 2014. For market plunges you want to sell. For me, I prefer to ignore corrections as it could be the start of a market plunge. Most predictions from analysts and fund managers are rosier than they actually are. Accept their ideas that make sense.

111 On Nice attack

Newton's Law: For every action (bombing the Middle East), there is a reaction (terrorist attacks with low tech.). Now, the reverse is true. It seems I'm watching a Kung Fu movie with the endless revenges. Newton covered more than physics.

We have been misinterpreting the teachings in the holy books. Are all religions supposed to teach us not to kill? Fighting has been for centuries between Christians and Muslims. One should not be affected if s/he is neither a Christian nor a Muslim but not in the cruel reality.

We've been dragged to their conflicts by Israel who controls our Congress by giving them money. Does the Bible predict Israel will be surrounded by enemies? If so, we should isolate their conflicts by not participating.

When the US sent soldiers to the Middle East, I was among the 30% minority to oppose it. The young are sent to the front line. Most National Guards treat them as good exercises and chances of playing some 'toys'. They should enjoy the best time of their lives in college instead of being sent back in body bags. Most do not understand the conflicts and the geography.

If we sent the children of our leaders to the front line to fight, there will not be any one sent to the front line for this war. Being number one is for the quest for power by our leaders, not for the common citizens.

Although the stock market is good now, the economy is not especially for the long term. It will take more than one generation to pay back the non-productive expenses for the wars. That's why many college graduates are still working for jobs that they do not have to go to college for.

If they do not want to fight for their freedom, why should we do it for them? Are we suckers?

Our leaders, the Christians, the Muslims, most citizens from Middle East, the 1%ers… most likely do not agree with my observations. However, we do not have to agree with each other in order to be peaceful. “Forgiveness” is the most powerful word in any language. Give peace a chance, please!

To some, this article should not be included in a book on investing.

112 Barcelona attack

There is another terrorist attack. I have been to Barcelona twice. It is one of the most beautiful cities I have visited. I have strong feelings with the city and her citizens. I prefer to respect each other’s religion and culture. Why not live in peace? Please give peace a chance. Out of fears and frustration and against my peaceful character, I recommend the following.

1. Spain should bomb ISIS HQs that may be dispersed. The French did and It would discourage them for the next terrorist attack. I usually do not advocate violence against violence, but do we have a better choice?

2. That led me to another idea: In WW2, Japan surrounded due to the two atomic bombs. Customize a small one and threaten ISIS with it. I hope it will be used as a threat, not really deploying it. Every time they open their big months, we show them how we load the bomb to our jet and submarine.

3. We should end our involvement in the Middle East conflicts. They will never be fixed as the Bible said. From the last a thousand years, it will continue in the next thousand years. We should not supply our jets and bombs to destroy their countries from the start. Crusade and modern Crusade (arguable to many) are both wrong. Where in any religious books teach us to kill?

4. No more immigrants from these areas. Japan and Poland do not have terrorist attacks from these foreigners and they have virtually zero immigrants from these countries.

5. Think like a terrorist would think to check their next easy targets. Understand why they terrorize the West and the US.

6. Convince them there is no after life and no 40 virgins waiting for them. If there is one, the Chinese ghost and the ghost from the west would be the same.

7. Take more actions. Many terrorists have been identified and monitored but no actions. More vehicle barriers should be installed. I advocate profiling for terrorists and deporting them.

8. Negotiate with ISIS and understand what they want.

113 Trumpology (my silly term)

I'm politically neutral and tend to argue against the current government's mal governance. Hopefully all the protests against Trump would be peaceful. Give peace a chance and also at least a short honeymoon period for Trump.

Usually I am against the unfilled promises of politicians. This time I take a different stance as some of Trump's ideas are just not practical. Here are my points.

1. ObamaCare. It shifts too much burden from the low class to the middle class. I hope it will be enhanced and not taking it out - a very expensive process. Using "Obama" is a mistake to start with.
We should consider how to pay for it first and how to reduce the costs as described in my blog.

2. We need to abandon some labor-extensive jobs. A $20 wage can never compete with a $2 wage. We cannot blame China on this as many of these jobs are being moved to countries with lower wages.

3. No need to build the border wall. How hard to dig a 10-feet tunnel or destroy part of the wall? Just punish employers hiring illegals. Mexicans will pay for the wall if we give them double the money under the table (has been done many, many times). However, illegals are taking jobs even the able welfare recipients do not take. We need to encourage folks to work first.

4. We cannot borrow money and raise our national debt irresponsibly forever. It will reduce our competitive edge. Have we learned anything from Greece?

5. Climate change has two opposing theories. However, it is better to trust the damage of pollution than not.

6. We need to end the wars and not to start another one. With the endless wars, we can never balance our budget. We have too many problems to fix at home.

7. China, Russia and the US are three powers that should work together than confront with each other. The global economies have been integrated better than ever. Free trade has more advantages when all participants play fairly.

All countries to some extent are currency manipulators and protectionists including the US. Today, China does not want to be the global leader/bully or "Ba" in Chinese. We can make China a friend or a foe.

8. How will Trump finance the infrastructure projects? Our national debt is over 100% of our GDP and the revenue will be reduced via the proposed tax cuts.

9. The proposed 45% (even reduced to 25%) tariff would drive the world including the US into a depression.

Written the day before the inauguration.

114 Actions to fix our problems

1. We consume more than we produce. Cut down on consumption, applied to both citizens and government. Our false prosperity depends too much on consumer spending. It has created all imbalances including Federal deficit and trade deficit.

Raising the interest rate would reduce consumer loans and investment loans at the expense of the stock market, building industry and big-ticket sales. We have to bit the bullet before it is too late.

2. We borrow more than we save. US saves about 2% while China saves about 15%. Save more and do not max out our credit cards. We cannot postpone our debts to next generations. Once-the-richest country borrows from the once-the-poorest country to support our spending.

3. We are not as competitive as we were in the 50s and 60s. Do not give out money generously to foreign countries. It made sense in the old days, but not anymore while EU, Japan, Israel and many have about the same wealth as us. When the government spends more in paying dividends of our gigantic national debts, we have less money to invest in infrastructure, education... that are important to boost our competitive edge.

4. The expenses of endless wars should go to investment for our future such as infrastructure.

We no longer depend on oil from Middle East, so we do not need to use military force to protect our oil route.

Does Vietnam today threaten us? Why we have to force the world to follow our way of life?

We need to concentrate on cyber security. The lack of it would collapse our financial systems and expose our secrets / technologies.

5. The world is more competitive (esp. China) and it looks like it is getting worse. Do better negotiation with our trade partners. Trade war is not the solution but taking out trade barriers to our products is. We have to understand why we are not competitive

6. We need to give up some sectors such as those that are labor- intensive and/or environmentally harmful - evaluate benefits and losses.

7. We need to motivate our able welfare recipients to work to take up the jobs currently performed by illegal aliens. Our generous welfare encourage folks not to work. If they work, they would lose all the subsidies. They are lazy but not stupid. We should give generous welfare to the poor who help themselves.

We need a workable work program for foreign workers. They are taking up jobs no one wants.

8. We need MORE (not less) H-1B visas to attract top scientists, engineers... to remain in our competitive edge. However, only let immediate children come. Many of their parents come here and collect welfare to further burden our entitlement system.

We also need international collaborations, relax restrictions on science research such as those in stem cells and promote starting new enterprises. Government should fund basic research. That’s what we were leading the world in science and technology. China will eclipse us just in a matter of time if we do not think long term and take corrective actions now!

9. We need to balance the budgets, cut down entitlements, rebuild our school system, fund research, fund infrastructure (including security to protect our IP)...

Make our broken health care delivery efficient.

10. We need to be doers instead of talkers. While we talked about the high speed rail (HSR) in California (that may not be useful here), China has over 60% of the global HSR. To start, get the two parties to sleep in the same bed. They disagree with each other if the idea is not from their own party.

11. Our children cannot compete with Chinese, Japanese and Koreans. They spend too much time in enjoying life. If you believe they will achieve the same in life, you believe in fairy tales. Education starts at home. When we have too many single parent families and teenage mothers, do we have a future? We need to protect our youths from shootings and drugs.

We need to bring back discipline and working hard. The school must be a place to learn. Have we learned from too many shootings? We have to love our children more than our guns.

12. The military might should be supported by a strong economy but not in our case. If we were a company, we have been bankrupted with debts and entitlements. We have to put our priority and effort in improving our economy and be competitive.

13. Trade wars will hurt all participating countries. When the world is inter-connected today, it will hurt the world. Instead of free trade, we need to enforce fair trade. China needs our farm products, high tech products, jets and drugs to start. Military products are controversial, but not those equivalent products they can buy from other countries.

Stop blaming others especially China on our problems that the politicians fail to fix. I blame the corporations of giving up our jobs and secrets to many countries including China in order to access their huge market and save on labor costs.

Realistically, most proposals above cannot be executed by politicians. They are more long- term solutions that the politicians are not interested in. The voters want to have the maximum benefits with least taxes. We are a nation of free loaders.

We are still leading the world in many sectors. We still have top-notch universities and profitable multi-national corporations. Do not live in denial that we are not declining. Check out any top-notch college or any big high-tech corporation, and you can find many foreign faces compared to 30 years ago. Most are new immigrants and their children.

It is hard for the leader of the global world to be humble. Our arrogance prevents us from collaborating with the rest of the world. If we can learn from our competitors and/or enemies, we would reverse the trend of decline.

We may be following the footsteps of the great British Empire. Our technology revolution since WW2 may collapse like the British Industrial Revolution. Our reserve currency could follow the British pound in losing the status. Hopefully we will make corrections to reverse the trend. If the trend does not reverse, hopefully it is not in my life time.

115 N. Korea’s missile over Japan

The spoiled, fat kid is not rational. Hence I have no rational answers to the following questions:

1. Who are the provokers: Group A (N. Korea, China and Russia), Group B (S. Korea, Japan and US), or all of the above.

2. Does the fat kid know we have missiles that can wipe out N. Korea from the map overnight? He is a paper tiger at best.

3. What actions should we take? More sanctions, more carriers, missile attacks... No matter what we will not be crazy enough to start a war with N. Korea. Our resources have been tied up in the Middle East. We may not be able to handle China and Russia combined.

4. Does our missile defense system work? Obviously not this time.

5. What will China do? China has been the beneficiary of the conflict. Without China, the fat kid will not bark that loud.

Give peace a chance please. At least one tells me that we do have a spoiled, fat man as our president. LOL.

#Filler: iGeneration

Almost everyone has an iPhone. Folks including myself in the lower class of the society carry imitators and/or those 'outdated' iPhones that are several months old.

My grandchild of just over one year old had a good time in playing with the iPad and it usually kept her busy for hours. Before she could say Mom, she said “I” for iPad. During my family gatherings, my cousins communicate with each other via their smart phones even when they sit next to each other. When they do not text messages, they play games with their smart phones.

Even with one pair of eyes and one pair of ears, they can play iPad, listen to iPod and text using iPhone at the same time. Thanks Apple for demonstrating what multi-tasking really is. Chinese and Indian students are leaving us further behind by spending more time in study. Do you believe those children spending extra 2 hours every day in games would accomplish the same later in life? Some parents have a hard time to explain to their children that their existence was due to the blackout of the iPad and iPhone caused by the hurricanes.

116 Is India’s demographics better?

Comparing China with India

In the 50s, India was ahead of China. For the last 30 years, China is decades ahead of India and over the next 30 years India will still be behind China.

Most favorable articles on India are written by Indians with their dumb nationalism (Saxena is a notable exception) and very few have been written by Chinese who prefer to compare China to the U.S. The Tier I cities in India cannot compete with the Tier III cities in China in subway, airport, train, high rises, electricity, corruption enforcement, intelligent property enforcement, protectionism, quality, and etc. The last four must be a surprise to the Westerners who have not been to both countries, but they are true. The list is endless.

Indians are happier, and it could be due to less internal competition and global competition with trade barriers and the religion beliefs. It is also the prime reason of poor product quality.

Most Indians here want to stay in the U.S. without waiting for the improvement in their native country while Chinese have a lot of ‘sea turtles’ who return to work back in China, meaning “swimming back to the mother land”. India is grossly mal governed.

India’s advantages are English speaking, more established democratic system and better capitalist systems (such as banking). China is improving in all these areas.

Why there are so little FDI (foreign direct investment) to India compared to China? You have to ask how long it takes to open a business in India and how many bribes you have to pay. China is corrupt too, but “efficiently corrupt” judging by the huge number of infrastructure projects. China has been prosecuting some corrupt officials.

I do not see a lot of Chinese settling down in India, but Indians are the second among all Asian countries settling down in Hong Kong after the housekeepers from Philippine.

Count how many high rises in Hong Kong and how many in the largest city in India. Count how many top 100 computers from each country, literacy rate (compare apples to apples such as the number of years of education that is compulsory; 9 in China) and many other measures you can think of (Source: Ted Talk).

From my contact, Indians and Chinese in the U.S. have the same intellectual level. Actually Indians are doing better here due to their better mastering of English and better educated (due to H1-B visa requirements). Many Chinese settled here due to political prosecution in the 50s and slave labors before then. The problem with India is poor governance, similar to Mao's reign in China.

India cannot even copy Chinese model by starting with a small economic zoom with stable electricity, roads, incentive taxes…

India experiences more social problems than China. There have been rape cases against even babies. In China, raping minors would be death punishment.

India cannot catch up with China in the next ten years. It is better for the world that India would catch up with the rest of the world and it is my wish they do. However, the reality looks too bleak for India. You need to understand the problems of your country before you can fix them.

Afterthoughts
Click for Ted talk.
http://www.ted.com/talks/yasheng_huang.html

Click for more on this topic.

http://blog.hiddenharmonies.org/2011/12/india-vs-china-weve-got-facebook-whatve-you-got

Click here for a good blog written by Shobhan Saxena.

http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Main-Street/entry/why-india-will-remain-a-nation-of-losers

Click here for a good article written by a PhD. with good data.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/836451-china-and-india-is-either-a-good-bet?v=1346412463&source=tracking_notify

Religion could hinder the economic development as demonstrated by the holy cows roaming in major cities in India and many Muslim countries (not against any religion and man should not live by bread alone). The only folks can fix their problems are Indians themselves. An explosive population, corruption and poor governance are three major areas to start. Copy China’s economic zone concept is a great idea.

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Saturday, April 11, 2020

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