10 The end of mankind?
The possible military war between
U.S. and China could bring to the end of mankind. Excuse me for treating this
serious subject light-hearted. With open mind, let’s evaluate what would
possibly happen with several scenarios. I will compare their military forces.
If the military war starts, most of our wealth would lose about 80% from our
recent peak in about Jan., 2020. It will affect adversely to the next generations
to come as they have to pay for our increased debts.
I hope the war will never happen.
If they discover the first virus patient is not from China, U.S. will not ask
for damages from this pamdenic and hence there is no military war.
The root cause of the war
The conflict between the two
countries started with the trade war. It is not just about trade but U.S.’s
protecting our #1 position in the world. Our leaders have to do it militarily today
before China is gaining more strength especially in military – you decide
whether it is right or wrong. China is passing us in several technologies such
as 5G and mobile pay. China becomes #1 in building high-speed train. Comparing
to U.S., it is a small leak that would get larger. Our GDP per capita is many
times that of China.
Foreplay
As of 4/2020, decoupling has been
exercised to some extent. Our leader has asked our citizens to return from
China after the breakout of the virus in Wuhan and our factories to be moved
back.
Our leader wants to put the blame
of this pandemic on China. Some of our allies have been convinced. We do not
want to agitate China further now, as we need China to supply the medical
supplies to fight this pandemic.
After the pandemic, our leader
would ask China for damages. Naturally China would not agree. The world have
not asked for damages for many similar cases such as H1N1 (most likely started
in Mexico) and the 2007 financial crisis
caused by Lehman Brothers.
U.S. may want to repeat the history
of the Eight-Nation Alliance
and this time it would be led by us. China today is not the China in the
Eight-Nation Alliance era, during which China lost to the alliance’s military
might and went bankrupt. China has learned this bitter lesson.
It is similar to spreading the
word of “mass-destruction weapons”. It convinced our allies, and then gave us
the reason to conquer Iraq. Iraq is no China.
Looking back at recent history,
U.S. had not won a war when China was in the other side such as the Korean War
and the Vietnam War.
Most likely the participated
allies would be United Kingdom, Australia and Taiwan. Japan and S. Korea would
weigh on the consequences on the economic ties with China. With very close economic
tie, Australia would be a loser if she joins U.S. in this war. I expect most
European countries would agree with us but not participate in the military war.
China’s spokesperson on foreign
affairs has been more aggressive to our accusations than before. It seems China
has prepared the decoupling. For example, Huawei’s new phones can use non-U.S.
chips; it could be a big loss for our chip companies.
From trade war to military war
The following is what I expect to
happen. I sincerely hope I am wrong.
China would refuse to pay for
damages for this pandemic. A U.S. court would side with U.S. Then U.S. would
freeze China’s assets and ignore our debt (1.3 T) owned by China. China would
take counter actions such as freezing U.S. factories and investments such as
MacDonald’s assets in China.
There are other catalysts. Trump
would divert the attention if he is losing the reelection. Taiwan declares
independence (not likely). The islet disputes in China Sea; it is not likely
due to today’s very low cost of oil. N. Korea invades S. Korea; it is only
likely unless the war between U.S. and China materializes. China’s water
redirect project would cause India to ask U.S. for help; it is not
likely that we will help India.
The next step is military. The
first strike would be important to weaken the other side by destroying the war
capabilities. Both countries have nuclear submarines and mobile launchers that cannot
be detected easily. U.S.’s first strike would cost them a lot politically
especially inside the U.S. China’s first strike would be less damaging to them
as the enemies are at the gates.
Comparison of military power
U.S. is far more powerful in
military strength. However, U.S. is further away from the battle field. The participated
allies are not powerful enough to make a dent. Russia would help China, but she
would balance the consequences carefully. Most likely Russia would not send
military force until China is winning.
U.S. has full combat experience
in wars as have been in wars most of the time since WW2. China has several
brief, regional conflicts beside the Korean War and Vietnam War.
Today’s war is decided by
technology. China has their “carrier killer” missiles
and hypersonic missiles that have not been tested in the field against our
super missile protection system. We have some hints on how good they are from
China’s older missiles purchased by Saudi Arabia.
China has the capability to
destroy our satellites that our smart missiles and missile defense systems
depend on. American drones are more superior to the Chinese counterparts.
However, China can deploy hundreds of drones each carrying a bomb simultaneously
from their coast. The other tool is cyber weapons which have not been used in
wars.
When the war drags on, China
would be more favorable to win. Our citizens would not agree with any lengthy
war such as the Vietnam War. Regardless the result of this war, China would be
more united as a nation. Contrary to what our government expect, China’s
government would be strengthened. China can supply their warfare machines /
missiles faster as they are the world’s #1 factory. In the last few years,
China also solves their energy supply bottleneck via the “One Belt, One Road”
Initiative. In a sentence, China has been preparing this war for a long while.
Scenarios
·
U.S. and China
settles the disputes peacefully. Both would declare victory. This is what I wish
for.
·
U.S. and China
settles the disputes with a lot of treaties and the two countries will be
decoupled partially or totally. Both countries would lose trades, but lives
will go on. In a decade or two, China would by-pass us in many areas except the
military and living standard.
·
If there is a
military war, it would last for a long time. The longer the war, the better
China would fare. Hopefully it would be a brief war if it happens.
·
Both countries
destroy each other. EU and Russia would be the winners. It is similar why we
became #1 after WW2 when Europe was destroyed. There is a good chance that Euro
would become the reserve currency and our USD would lose a lot of value.
China would prepare for
the next war better. China would replace her legacy military weapons with
up-to-date weapons and China would learn how to combat in a modern war. Our
beaten economy (that is already in bad shape today) would take our military to
the back seat.
It would boost the arm
race and hence make the defense (or offense) sector for both countries more
profitable. During the war, gold price would rise.
·
Destroying the
world using nuclear weapons. Although China said that they would not be the
first country to use nuclear weapon, but who knows when they are desperate? It
is better for me to build an ark in Alaska.
I hope the two countries would
settle the conflicts peacefully. There is no winner in this military war and
citizens of both countries would suffer for decades.
Links
From
the expert
China
military
11 The hawks and the doves
I am one of the doves hoping
China and U.S. can co-exist peacefully. It would benefit my (and most likely
your) wealth and living standard by doing so. For example, by decoupling, all
the chicken feet will be dumped to the ocean instead of selling them to Chinese,
who treat them as delicacy.
There are many hawks. Many work
for the military or are retired from it. Without wars, they do not have jobs.
Many work for the defense sector. Without wars, these companies would go
bankrupt, even it is good for mankind. Most of our leaders want to flex our
military muscle to ensure we are on top and boost their shameless ego. That’s
why we have endless wars since WW2. Our huge war expenses should be redirected
to improve our living standard and improving our deplorable infrastructure.
The media report what you want to
hear. They usually demonize China so they can sell more stuffs. The following
are my opinions. Take out nationalism for a moment, and determine for yourself
which are right or wrong.
The following article
outlined Defense Secretary Mark Esper’s opinions and I will discuss his points.
Mark: It will take to complete the U.S. drawdown (in Afghan).
Tony: Is this the reason we deploy our military to South China Sea?
Mark: And the Air Force described a flight by a nuclear-capable
B-52 bomber over Somalia in February as, in part, a warning to China of
engagement to come.
Tony: What do you think if China do the same close to one of our
coastal cities?
Mark: the United States is in a new ‘era of great power
competition,’.
Tony: China has not expressed ‘great power competition’. In
addition, China has a non-interference clause
in their foreign policy.
Mark: China that continues to grow its military strength, its
economic power, its commercial activity…
Tony: What is wrong to be
stronger? Did U.S. at one time was getting stronger and stronger?
Mark: do the things that really undermine our [and our allies’]
sovereignty, that undermine the rule of law, that really question [Beijing’s]
commitment to human rights.
Tony: That is our standard.
China has lifted millions from starving to death in the last few decades. Is it
the #1 in human rights? In addition, we use double standards. Do you believe
Saudi Arabia and many countries have far worse human rights than China? We keep
our mouths shut and our eyes closed, as they are supposed to be our ‘friends’.
Which nationalists did participate in the 911 attack? Is our constant gun
shooting at each other a human rights violation?
The article: in illicit business practices, including hacking and
theft of trade secrets
Tony: Most if not all countries spy on each other and steal trade
secrets. If you believe CIA is a friendly information gathering agency, you
believe in fairy tales. Do you believe Microsoft, Google and any major
companies do not steal secrets from each other? Should we blame someone for not
protecting our secrets, especially those secrets on national security? Guess
who is that someone?
The article: But none of it remotely justifies twisting great power
competition into a shooting war.
Tony: I agree whole-heartedly.
The article: a U.S.-China war would pose a real threat to the
American homeland.
Tony: I agree whole-heartedly.
The article: Our goal with Beijing (and Moscow, for that matter)
should be diplomacy, mutual economic benefit and peace — not war.
Tony: This is my goal too.
Do you agree with me more or our ‘Offense’
Secretary more?
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